Rated 1619 and 1533, these two produce a 59.0% / 22.7% / 18.2% split. Coventry City is ahead on each half — 1.27 to 1.19 in attack, 0.86 to 1.36 in defence.
Coventry City's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 70.5%. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Raw profiles are 1.27 and 0.86 against 1.19 and 1.36. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. xG: 2.55 to 1.39. Most and least likely outcomes are 40.8 points apart. Win-or-lose totals 77.2%; the draw takes the rest. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 86 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.8%. Behind them are 52 and 56 rated matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 53.6% / 24.1% / 22.4%. That call matched the result. Final score: 4-1. Coventry City leads the distribution by 36.3 points over the draw. Coventry City carries the largest share, 59.0%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +119 and +33.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Coventry City: one win and four defeats over five games; one goal scored, ten conceded, failing to score in four of those games. Nottingham were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 1-0 win.
1-0 was Coventry City's result against Nottingham on 19 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Coventry City won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 13 September fixture (Premier League) paired Coventry City with Brighton Hove. Coventry City lost 0-5 at home, netting zero goals while conceding five. Playing away from home against Man City (Premier League), Coventry City finished 0-1 on 5 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 29 August: Coventry City lost 0-1 against Hull City at home in Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Arsenal in Premier League, Coventry City scored zero and conceded three on 21 August; the away from home result was 0-3.
three points in five matches put Coventry City 19th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
nine goals for and nine against accompanied Newcastle's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 19 September, Newcastle recorded a 2-1 win hosting Hull City.
Newcastle's at home game on 19 September (Premier League) ended 2-1 against Hull City, with two goals for and one against. On 14 September, Leeds United faced Newcastle in Premier League: Newcastle lost 1-4 away from home, having scored one and conceded four. Premier League, 5 September brought a home meeting with Bournemouth; Newcastle drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Newcastle visited Tottenham on 29 August (Premier League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Liverpool travelled to face Newcastle (Premier League) on 23 August. For Newcastle, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed.
Newcastle: 11th, eight points, five matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
After the match
Coventry City comfortably beat Newcastle 4-1 on 12 October 2026. Jack Rudoni opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 6 minutes for Coventry City to make it 1-0. Sidiki Cherif added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Coventry City to make it 2-0. Sven Botman pulled one back 70 minutes into the game for Newcastle, set up by Nico Gonzalez, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Coventry City extended the lead through Ellis Simms late on, in the 81st minute, set up by Brandon Thomas-Asante, to make it 3-1. Stephen Mfuni scored the 5th goal for Coventry City late on, in the 86th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Jay Dasilva, to make it 4-1. Milan van Ewijk (66') and Joelinton (81') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. 59% is Coventry City's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Coventry City picked up one yellow card. Coventry City: five substitutions. Ellis Simms, on in the 78th minute, scored in minute 81. Stephen Mfuni entered for Coventry City at 83 minutes and later scored in minute 86. Newcastle: one yellow card. Newcastle made five changes. Joelinton was booked following entry for Newcastle in the 59th minute.