18 meetings sit in the record, first in 2015, aggregate 27-19. The latest was 2025, 2-2 in Premier League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1509 and 1529 — 20 points — for a 43.2% / 26.4% / 30.3% split.
The model's preferred outcome is Chelsea at 43.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Distance between the ratings: 20 points, narrow on this scale. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.24 to 1.02 says Chelsea, 1.12 to 1.39 says Bournemouth. Win-or-lose totals 73.5%; the draw takes the rest. The xG line reads 2.07 to 1.91. Outcomes span 16.8 points. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 33.7% / 27.4% / 38.9%. The match did not follow it. In absolute terms: Chelsea 1.24/1.39, Bournemouth 1.02/1.12 on attack and defence. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 54 and 44 matches. The tie closed out 5-1. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 7.7%. First to second is a 12.9-point step, Chelsea over Bournemouth. Elo expected shares: 56.4% and 43.6%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +9 and +29.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and 12 against accompanied Chelsea's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 18 September, Chelsea recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting Brentford.
Premier League, 18 September brought an away meeting with Brentford; Chelsea lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Chelsea hosted Hull City on 12 September (Premier League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Arsenal hosted Chelsea (Premier League) on 6 September. For Chelsea, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 4-3 was Chelsea's result against Brighton Hove on 30 August (Premier League), playing at home; Chelsea won, with four scored to three conceded. The 24 August fixture (Premier League) paired Chelsea with Fulham. Chelsea won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two.
Chelsea: 10th, seven points, five matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
six goals for and eight against accompanied Bournemouth's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 20 September, Bournemouth recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Liverpool.
Premier League, 20 September brought a home meeting with Liverpool; Bournemouth lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Bournemouth hosted Brentford on 12 September (Premier League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Newcastle hosted Bournemouth (Premier League) on 5 September. For Bournemouth, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Bournemouth's result against Everton on 29 August (Premier League), playing at home; Bournemouth drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 23 August fixture (Premier League) paired Bournemouth with Man City. Bournemouth lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two.
Bournemouth: 17th, three points, five matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on 30 December 2025 and a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth on 6 December 2025.
After the match
Chelsea overwhelmed Bournemouth 5-1 on 10 October 2026. Jordan Henderson opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Chelsea, set up by Cole Palmer, to make it 1-0. Morgan Rogers added to the tally inside the first 3 minutes for Chelsea, set up by Jordan Henderson, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Chelsea extended the lead through João Pedro 46 minutes into the game, set up by Pedro Neto, to make it 3-0. Evanilson got one back 51 minutes into the game for Bournemouth to make it 1-3. João Pedro scored the 5th goal for Chelsea 67 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Pep Chavarría, to make it 4-1. Chelsea extended the lead 70 minutes into the game; the match's 6th goal came through Jordan Henderson to make it 5-1. Marcus Tavernier (10'), Adrien Truffert (42'), Tyler Adams (62') and Ryan Christie (69') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Bournemouth just 20 rating points ahead of Chelsea, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings the model puts Chelsea at around 2.07 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Chelsea: five substitutions. Bournemouth: four yellow cards. Bournemouth made five changes.