On record: 10 meetings from 2012, 26-5 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 4-0 in Premier League. History aside, the live ratings of 1802 and 1551 drive a 77.5% / 17.0% / 5.5% distribution.
Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neither component contradicts the other: Arsenal leads 1.17-0.97 forward and 0.53-0.86 back. Expected shares 86.0% against 14.0% on Elo. 83.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 251-point difference on the rating scale. The ratings draw on 60 and 44 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Result on the day: 2-1. On expected goals the model has it 1.50 against 0.69. Most weight falls on 1-0 at 16.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Attack/defence pairs: 1.17/0.53 and 0.97/0.86. Spread across the three results is 72.0 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 76.7% / 17.3% / 6.0%. It landed. Arsenal sits 60.5 points above the next most likely result. Most likely single result is Arsenal on 77.5%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +302 and +51.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Arsenal: four wins and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, four conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Brighton Hove were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 3-0 defeat.
Arsenal visited Brighton Hove on 19 September (Premier League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Sunderland hosted Arsenal (Premier League) on 12 September. For Arsenal, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Arsenal's result against Napoli on 9 September (Champions League), playing away from home; Arsenal won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 6 September fixture (Premier League) paired Arsenal with Chelsea. Arsenal won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Aston Villa (Premier League), Arsenal finished 1-0 on 31 August. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
12 points in five matches put Arsenal 2nd in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Leeds United: two wins and three draws over five games; seven goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 0-0 draw at home to Crystal Palace on 20 September; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Newcastle on 14 September.
Playing at home against Crystal Palace (Premier League), Leeds United finished 0-0 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 14 September: Leeds United won 4-1 against Newcastle at home in Premier League, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Brighton Hove in Premier League, Leeds United scored one and conceded one on 5 September; the away from home result was 1-1. Leeds United's at home game on 30 August (Premier League) ended 1-1 against Brentford, with one goal for and one against. On 22 August, Nottingham faced Leeds United in Premier League: Leeds United won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero.
nine points in five matches put Leeds United 5th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-0 away win for Arsenal on 31 January and a 5-0 home win for Arsenal on 23 August 2025.
After the match
Arsenal edged past Leeds United 2-1 on 10 October 2026. James Justin opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for Leeds United, set up by Gabriel Gudmundsson, to make it 1-0. Riccardo Calafiori levelled it 62 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Ben White, to make it 1-1. Bruno Guimarães put Arsenal in front 70 minutes into the game, set up by Declan Rice, to make it 2-1. Ao Tanaka (36'), Ethan Ampadu (38'), Daniel Farke (39'), Tarik Muharemović (59'), James Justin (78') and Martin Ødegaard (84') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. 77.5% is Arsenal's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Arsenal: one yellow card. Arsenal made five changes. Bruno Guimarães entered for Arsenal at 63 minutes and later scored in minute 70. The card tally for Leeds United was five yellow cards. Leeds United made five changes. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. The winners, Arsenal, had been behind.