On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 0-1 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-1 in Premier League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1477 and 1641 — 164 points — for a 23.9% / 24.5% / 51.6% split.
4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 0.83 and 1.19 against 1.36 and 0.78. Most likely single result is Brighton Hove on 51.6%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Brighton Hove holds both halves of the profile — 1.36 against 0.83 for scoring, 0.78 against 1.19 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Final score: 0-2. The leading outcome clears the second by 27.1 points. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -23 and +141. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 28.6% / 25.9% / 45.4%. That call matched the result. The xG line reads 0.97 to 2.18. Its rounded call is 0-2. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 36.1% to 63.9%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 44 and 44 rated matches respectively.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and ten against accompanied Sunderland's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 20 September, Sunderland recorded a 5-3 defeat visiting Man City.
Premier League, 20 September brought an away meeting with Man City; Sunderland lost 3-5, a return of three goals scored and five conceded. Sunderland hosted Arsenal on 12 September (Premier League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Brentford hosted Sunderland (Premier League) on 5 September. For Sunderland, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Sunderland's result against Fulham on 30 August (Premier League), playing at home; Sunderland won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 22 August fixture (Premier League) paired Sunderland with Ipswich Town. Sunderland lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two.
Sunderland stood 14th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with four points from five matches.
Brighton Hove's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 16 scored and 5 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Arsenal were their latest opponents, at home on 19 September: a 3-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Coventry City on 13 September.
Brighton Hove hosted Arsenal on 19 September (Premier League) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Coventry City hosted Brighton Hove (Premier League) on 13 September. For Brighton Hove, the score was 5-0: five goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Brighton Hove's result against Leeds United on 5 September (Premier League), playing at home; Brighton Hove drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 30 August fixture (Premier League) paired Brighton Hove with Chelsea. Brighton Hove lost 3-4 away from home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Aston Villa (Premier League), Brighton Hove finished 4-0 on 23 August. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition.
ten points in five matches put Brighton Hove 3rd in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 away win for Brighton Hove on 14 March and a 0-0 draw at Brighton Hove on 20 December 2025.
After the match
Brighton Hove beat Sunderland 2-0 on 10 October 2026. Maxim De Cuyper opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for Brighton Hove, set up by Pascal Groß, to make it 1-0. Jaouen Hadjam added to the tally in the 93rd minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Georginio Rutter, to make it 2-0. Pascal Struijk (57') was sent off. Olivier Boscagli (36') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Brighton Hove 164 points stronger than Sunderland. Brighton Hove are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. The substitution total for Sunderland was four. The card tally for Brighton Hove was one yellow card and one red card. five changes were recorded for Brighton Hove. Jaouen Hadjam entered for Brighton Hove at 88 minutes and later scored in minute 93. After coming on for Brighton Hove in minute 88, Georginio Rutter provided an assist. Brighton Hove finished with a clean sheet.