The head-to-head counts 6 recorded meetings since 2023: 4 to Lille, 1 to Le Havre, 1 drawn, 11-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in Ligue 1. Today those sides rate 1581 and 1401, 180 apart, which resolves to 70.7% / 19.4% / 9.9%.
Played and finished 1-0. Rounded, that is 1-0. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 69.2% / 19.9% / 10.9%. It landed. Both components point the same way, toward Lille: 1.02 to 0.70 going forward, 0.76 to 0.96 going back. A 51.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Most and least likely outcomes are 60.8 points apart. 180 points of rating separation. Both figures rest on decent samples, 40 and 40 matches. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +81 and -99. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.5%. Expected goals come out at 1.46 to 0.72. Most likely single result is Lille on 70.7%. Expected shares 80.4% against 19.6% on Elo. Win-or-lose totals 80.6%; the draw takes the rest.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Lille's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 7 conceded. Nice were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 2-1 defeat.
1-2 was Lille's result against Nice on 20 September (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Lille lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 13 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Lille with Troyes. Lille won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Real Betis (Champions League), Lille finished 2-3 on 8 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 3 September: Lille won 1-0 against Toulouse away from home in Ligue 1, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against PSG in Ligue 1, Lille scored two and conceded two on 28 August; the at home result was 2-2.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Lille 4th after five matches and ten points.
Le Havre arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring four goals and conceding seven. On 19 September, Le Havre recorded a 3-2 defeat visiting Toulouse.
Toulouse hosted Le Havre (Ligue 1) on 19 September. For Le Havre, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 0-0 was Le Havre's result against Angers SCO on 12 September (Ligue 1), playing at home; Le Havre drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 5 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Le Havre with Brest. Le Havre lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1), Le Havre finished 1-1 on 29 August. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 23 August: Le Havre lost 0-1 against Monaco at home in Ligue 1, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Le Havre stood 18th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with two points from five matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at Lille on 3 May and a 1-0 away win for Lille on 30 November 2025.
After the match
Lille edged past Le Havre 1-0 on 10 October 2026. Dilane Bakwa opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Lille, set up by Nianzou Kouassi, to make it 1-0. Ayumu Seko (61') was sent off. Rassoul N'Diaye (63'), Djibril Ouziad (76'), Maurits Kjærgaard (85') and Maxima Goffi (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lille 180 points stronger than Le Havre. Lille's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 70.7% for a win in this pairing. The card tally for Lille was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Lille. Maxima Goffi was booked following entry for Lille in the 22nd minute. two yellow cards and one red card went to Le Havre. Le Havre: three substitutions. A clean sheet for Lille.