18 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 19-22. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in Coupe de France. The present numbers are 1421 against 1509, and the model turns that into 33.1% / 27.2% / 39.7%.
39.7% goes to Strasbourg, the model's lean. The three results cover 12.5 points. The higher rating belongs to the away side. One half each — Strasbourg in front on 1.15, Nice behind on 1.12. The rating gap itself is 88 points, which is wide by the model's standards. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 46.7% to 53.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -79 and +9. Rounded, that is 1-1. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 28.5% / 25.9% / 45.6%. The result went the other way. Raw profiles are 0.71 and 1.12 against 1.15 and 1.21. The underlying goal expectation is 1.27 for Nice, 1.73 for Strasbourg. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 39 and 39 rated matches respectively.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
three goals for and six against accompanied Nice's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 2-1 win at home to Lille (20 September) was their most recent result.
The 20 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Nice with Lille. Nice won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Auxerre (Ligue 1), Nice finished 0-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Nice drew 1-1 against Le Mans at home in Ligue 1, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Paris FC in Ligue 1, Nice scored zero and conceded three on 30 August; the away from home result was 0-3. Nice's at home game on 22 August (Ligue 1) ended 0-0 against Lorient, with zero goals for and zero against.
Nice: 15th, five points, five matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
Strasbourg's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 10 conceded. Paris FC were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 2-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 away to Troyes on 6 September.
On 19 September, Paris FC faced Strasbourg in Ligue 1: Strasbourg lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Ligue 1, 12 September brought a home meeting with Monaco; Strasbourg drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Strasbourg visited Troyes on 6 September (Ligue 1) and won 6-2; their goals totalled six, compared with two conceded. RC Lens travelled to face Strasbourg (Ligue 1) on 29 August. For Strasbourg, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 0-4 was Strasbourg's result against Marseille on 21 August (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Strasbourg lost, with zero scored to four conceded.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Strasbourg 10th after five matches and seven points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 away win for Nice on 22 April and a 3-1 home win for Strasbourg on 4 April.
After the match
Nice edged past Strasbourg 2-1 on 11 October 2026. Dario Essugo opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Strasbourg, set up by Conrad Harder, to make it 1-0. Pape Diop (an own goal) levelled it 47 minutes into the game for Nice to make it 1-1. Jonathan Clauss put Nice in front late on, in the 81st minute, set up by Sofiane Diop, to make it 2-1. Oso (47') and Sofiane Diop (75') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Strasbourg slightly the stronger side, by 88 rating points over Nice, even though it was Nice who won this one. one yellow card went to Nice. Nice: four substitutions. After coming on for Nice in minute 73, Sofiane Diop provided an assist and was booked. The card tally for Strasbourg was one yellow card. Strasbourg made five changes. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. Nice won after falling behind.