On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2024, 7-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Ligue 1. Today those sides rate 1375 and 1471, 96 apart, which resolves to 32.1% / 26.9% / 40.9%.
A 96-point difference on the rating scale. Most likely single result is Auxerre on 40.9%. Expected goals come out at 1.23 to 1.43. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -125 and -29. Neither side holds both halves — Auxerre scores at 1.02, Le Havre concedes at 1.04. By expected share of the points: 45.6% and 54.4%. The three results cover 14.0 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 73.0%; the draw takes the rest. Played and finished 1-3. Both figures rest on decent samples, 41 and 41 matches. The four component numbers read 0.70, 1.04, 1.02, 1.18. Auxerre holds a 8.8-point edge on the next outcome. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.3%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the away side. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 38.0% / 27.6% / 34.4%. The match did not follow it.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Le Havre arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring four goals and conceding seven. On 10 October, Le Havre recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Lille.
10 October: Le Havre lost 0-1 against Lille away from home in Ligue 1, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Toulouse in Ligue 1, Le Havre scored two and conceded three on 19 September; the away from home result was 2-3. Le Havre's at home game on 12 September (Ligue 1) ended 0-0 against Angers SCO, with zero goals for and zero against. On 5 September, Brest faced Le Havre in Ligue 1: Le Havre lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Ligue 1, 29 August brought an away meeting with Olympique Lyon; Le Havre drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
Le Havre stood 18th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with two points from six matches.
Auxerre came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding 11. On 11 October, Auxerre recorded a 4-1 defeat visiting Stade Rennais.
Ligue 1, 11 October brought an away meeting with Stade Rennais; Auxerre lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Auxerre hosted Brest on 20 September (Ligue 1) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Nice travelled to face Auxerre (Ligue 1) on 12 September. For Auxerre, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-3 was Auxerre's result against Olympique Lyon on 4 September (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Auxerre lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 29 August fixture (Ligue 1) paired Auxerre with Angers SCO. Auxerre lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three.
Auxerre stood 16th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with six points from six matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at Le Havre on 5 April and a 1-0 away win for Le Havre on 26 October 2025.
After the match
Auxerre beat Le Havre 3-1 on 18 October 2026. Daniel Namaso opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Auxerre, set up by Kevin Danois, to make it 1-0. Daniel Namaso added to the tally 61 minutes into the game for Auxerre, set up by Romain Faivre, to make it 2-0. Rayan Fofana pulled one back 66 minutes into the game for Le Havre, set up by Hakim Dongopandji, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Auxerre extended the lead through Romain Faivre 80 minutes into the game, set up by Daniel Namaso, to make it 3-1. Clement Akpa (43'), Naouirou Ahamada (50') and Lamine N'Diaye (54') were booked. Auxerre won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win. one yellow card went to Le Havre. Le Havre: five substitutions. After coming on for Le Havre in minute 62, Rayan Fofana scored in minute 66. Hakim Dongopandji provided an assist following entry for Le Havre in the 62nd minute. Auxerre: two yellow cards. Auxerre made two changes.