Rated 1546 and 1527, these two produce a 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.7% split. Neither side holds both halves — Le Mans scores at 1.14, Toulouse concedes at 1.07.
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.0%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.14/1.15 and 1.11/1.07. A 19-point difference on the rating scale. The distribution runs from 49.3% down to 25.1%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.82 for Le Mans, 1.73 for Toulouse. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Le Mans carries the largest share, 49.3%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model gives 75.0% to someone winning. Before kickoff our model had this at 65.6% / 21.0% / 13.4%. That one did not come off. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 38 and 41 matches. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +46 and +27. A 23.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Point estimate: 1-1. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. By expected share of the points: 61.9% and 38.1%. Result on the day: 0-3.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Le Mans came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding ten. On 10 October, Le Mans recorded a 3-1 defeat visiting PSG.
10 October: Le Mans lost 1-3 against PSG away from home in Ligue 1, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Lorient in Ligue 1, Le Mans scored two and conceded one on 19 September; the at home result was 2-1. Le Mans's at home game on 13 September (Ligue 1) ended 2-2 against RC Lens, with two goals for and two against. On 5 September, Nice faced Le Mans in Ligue 1: Le Mans drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Ligue 1, 30 August brought an away meeting with Stade Rennais; Le Mans lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded.
Le Mans stood 14th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with six points from six matches.
nine goals for and nine against accompanied Toulouse's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. A 2-2 draw away to Monaco (10 October) was their most recent result.
Toulouse's away from home game on 10 October (Ligue 1) ended 2-2 against Monaco, with two goals for and two against. On 19 September, Le Havre faced Toulouse in Ligue 1: Toulouse won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. Ligue 1, 12 September brought an away meeting with Lorient; Toulouse drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Toulouse hosted Lille on 3 September (Ligue 1) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Brest hosted Toulouse (Ligue 1) on 29 August. For Toulouse, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed.
Toulouse: 15th, six points, six matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
After the match
Toulouse comfortably beat Le Mans 3-0 on 16 October 2026. Jacen Russell-Rowe opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Toulouse, set up by Aron Dönnum, to make it 1-0. Aron Dönnum added to the tally 59 minutes into the game for Toulouse to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Toulouse extended the lead through Casper Tengstedt late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr., to make it 3-0. Jacen Russell-Rowe (49'), Samuel Yohou (90') and Djibril Sidibé (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Le Mans just 19 rating points ahead of Toulouse, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Toulouse only a 25.7% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Toulouse are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. The card tally for Le Mans was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Le Mans. Toulouse: one yellow card. three changes were recorded for Toulouse. A clean sheet for Toulouse.