On file: 19 previous meetings dating to 2010, 26-21 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Ligue 1. Against that, current ratings read 1580 and 1466, a 114-point margin, and the model splits the tie 62.8% / 21.8% / 15.5%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +80 and -34. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Played and finished 1-1. The two halves pull apart — Brest better going forward at 1.07, Lille tighter at the back on 0.80. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Logged in advance of kickoff — 67.0% / 20.6% / 12.5%. The match did not follow it. Attack/defence pairs: 0.97/0.80 and 1.07/1.16. The rating gap itself is 114 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Lille sits 41.0 points above the next most likely result. 78.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Expected shares 73.7% against 26.3% on Elo. Most and least likely outcomes are 47.3 points apart. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 41 matches respectively sit behind them. The underlying goal expectation is 1.67 for Lille, 1.16 for Brest. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Most likely single result is Lille on 62.8%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Lille came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding eight. On 13 October, Lille recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting Arsenal.
Champions League, 13 October brought an away meeting with Arsenal; Lille lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Lille hosted Le Havre on 10 October (Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Nice hosted Lille (Ligue 1) on 20 September. For Lille, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-0 was Lille's result against Troyes on 13 September (Ligue 1), playing at home; Lille won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 8 September fixture (Champions League) paired Lille with Real Betis. Lille lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three.
Lille: 3rd, 13 points, six matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
ten goals for and seven against accompanied Brest's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 5-1 win at home to Angers SCO (10 October) was their most recent result.
10 October: Brest won 5-1 against Angers SCO at home in Ligue 1, scoring five goals and allowing one. Against Auxerre in Ligue 1, Brest scored one and conceded two on 20 September; the away from home result was 1-2. Brest's at home game on 13 September (Ligue 1) ended 0-1 against PSG, with zero goals for and one against. On 5 September, Le Havre faced Brest in Ligue 1: Brest won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. Ligue 1, 29 August brought a home meeting with Toulouse; Brest drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded.
Brest stood 8th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with eight points from six matches.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Lille on 14 February and a 3-3 draw at Brest on 17 August 2025.
After the match
Lille and Brest drew 1-1 on 17 October 2026. Mama Baldé opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Brest, set up by Gautier Lloris, to make it 1-0. Olivier Giroud levelled it from the penalty spot 64 minutes into the game for Lille to make it 1-1. Kamory Doumbia (13'), Bradley Locko (58') and Calvin Verdonk (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lille 114 points stronger than Brest. one yellow card went to Lille. The substitution total for Lille was four. Calvin Verdonk, on in the 54th minute, was booked. Brest picked up two yellow cards. Brest: three substitutions.