2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-3. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in Ligue 1. The present numbers are 1586 against 1597, and the model turns that into 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2%.
Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.3%. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. xG: 2.16 to 1.72. Paris FC sits 15.5 points above the next most likely result. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +86 and +97. Scorelines above 8%: 1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.7% to 42.3%. Raw profiles are 1.16 and 0.89 against 1.43 and 1.26. The model's preferred outcome is Paris FC at 44.7%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The split is one apiece: Stade Rennais leads the attacking rate on 1.43, Paris FC the defensive on 0.89. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 41 and 41 rated matches respectively. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 11 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Paris FC's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 4 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Lorient on 10 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Nice on 30 August.
Playing away from home against Lorient (Ligue 1), Paris FC finished 0-1 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: Paris FC won 2-1 against Strasbourg at home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Olympique Lyon in Ligue 1, Paris FC scored zero and conceded zero on 12 September; the at home result was 0-0. Paris FC's away from home game on 6 September (Ligue 1) ended 3-2 against Marseille, with three goals for and two against. On 30 August, Nice faced Paris FC in Ligue 1: Paris FC won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Paris FC 6th after six matches and 11 points.
Stade Rennais: four wins and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to Auxerre on 11 October.
4-1 was Stade Rennais's result against Auxerre on 11 October (Ligue 1), playing at home; Stade Rennais won, with four scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Stade Rennais with Olympique Lyon. Stade Rennais lost 0-4 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Marseille (Ligue 1), Stade Rennais finished 1-0 on 11 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 6 September: Stade Rennais won 2-1 against Angers SCO away from home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Le Mans in Ligue 1, Stade Rennais scored three and conceded two on 30 August; the at home result was 3-2.
13 points in six matches put Stade Rennais 4th in the pre-match results-based Ligue 1 standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for Stade Rennais on 10 May and a 1-0 away win for Stade Rennais on 7 November 2025.
After the match
Paris FC edged past Stade Rennais 4-3 on 18 October 2026. Maxime López opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Paris FC, set up by Lassine Sinayoko, to make it 1-0. Esteban Lepaul levelled it from the penalty spot in the 29th minute for Stade Rennais to make it 1-1. Paris FC regained the lead through Maxime López 49 minutes into the game, set up by Lassine Sinayoko, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Stade Rennais drew level through Esteban Lepaul from the penalty spot 74 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Paris FC restored the lead through Lassine Sinayoko 76 minutes into the game to make it 3-2. Esteban Lepaul scored the 6th goal for Stade Rennais from the penalty spot late on, in the 88th minute as they drew level to make it 3-3. Lassine Sinayoko scored the 7th goal for Paris FC from the penalty spot in the 97th minute as they restored the lead to make it 4-3. 7 players were booked, among them Przemysław Frankowski (23'), Djaoui Cissé (32'), Anthony Rouault (36'), Adrien Thomasson (36'), Samir Chergui (42') and Ilan Kebbal (67'). 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Paris FC won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. The card tally for Paris FC was three yellow cards. Paris FC made five changes. four yellow cards went to Stade Rennais. The substitution total for Stade Rennais was five.