Prior record: 6-6-8 across 20 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 3-1 in Ligue 1. Today those sides rate 1523 and 1592, 69 apart, which resolves to 35.5% / 27.9% / 36.6%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +23 and +92. The top two outcomes are within 1.1 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The two halves pull apart — Monaco better going forward at 1.20, Lorient tighter at the back on 0.89. All three results are bunched inside 8.7 points. Higher rating: the away side. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.3% leads, but only just. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.53 to 1.44. Behind them are 41 and 51 rated matches. Logged in advance of kickoff — 34.4% / 27.6% / 38.0%. The match did not follow it. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 69 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Monaco carries the largest share, 36.6%. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and six against accompanied Lorient's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 1-0 win at home to Paris FC (10 October) was their most recent result.
Lorient's at home game on 10 October (Ligue 1) ended 1-0 against Paris FC, with one goal for and zero against. On 19 September, Le Mans faced Lorient in Ligue 1: Lorient lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Ligue 1, 12 September brought a home meeting with Toulouse; Lorient drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Lorient visited RC Lens on 5 September (Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Troyes travelled to face Lorient (Ligue 1) on 29 August. For Lorient, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Lorient stood 11th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with eight points from six matches.
Monaco's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. Toulouse were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 2-2 draw.
Playing at home against Toulouse (Ligue 1), Monaco finished 2-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 18 September: Monaco won 2-1 against RC Lens at home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Monaco scored one and conceded one on 12 September; the away from home result was 1-1. Monaco's away from home game on 4 September (Ligue 1) ended 2-1 against PSG, with two goals for and one against. On 30 August, Marseille faced Monaco in Ligue 1: Monaco won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero.
14 points in six matches put Monaco 2nd in the pre-match results-based Ligue 1 standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 away win for Lorient on 16 January and a 3-1 home win for Lorient on 27 September 2025.
After the match
Lorient edged past Monaco 1-0 on 18 October 2026. Noah Cadiou opened the scoring from the penalty spot 61 minutes into the game for Lorient to make it 1-0. Mohammed Salisu (57'), Denis Zakaria (60'), Flávio Nazinho (60'), Noah Cadiou (66'), Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi (76') and Christian Mawissa (80') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Monaco slightly the stronger side, by 69 rating points over Lorient, even though it was Lorient who won this one. The card tally for Lorient was two yellow cards. two changes were recorded for Lorient. Monaco: four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Monaco. Christian Mawissa was booked following entry for Monaco in the 66th minute. Lorient finished with a clean sheet.