The model declines to call this one. 1451 plays 1522, and the three-way split of 35.2% / 27.8% / 37.0% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
Elo expected shares: 49.1% and 50.9%. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.0%. In absolute terms: Auxerre 0.99/1.31, Le Mans 1.05/1.15 on attack and defence. Only 1.8 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Versus the 1500 seed: -49 and +22. The away side is rated higher. 71 points of rating separation. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 40 rated matches respectively. Someone wins 72.2% of the time by this model. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.2 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.69 and 1.86. Played and finished 1-1. Before kickoff our model had this at 26.6% / 25.3% / 48.1%. The match did not follow it. 37.0% goes to Le Mans, the model's lean. Both components point the same way, toward Le Mans: 1.05 to 0.99 going forward, 1.15 to 1.31 going back.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Auxerre came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding nine. On 18 October, Auxerre recorded a 3-1 win visiting Le Havre.
Auxerre's away from home game on 18 October (Ligue 1) ended 3-1 against Le Havre, with three goals for and one against. On 11 October, Stade Rennais faced Auxerre in Ligue 1: Auxerre lost 1-4 away from home, having scored one and conceded four. Ligue 1, 20 September brought a home meeting with Brest; Auxerre won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Auxerre hosted Nice on 12 September (Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Olympique Lyon hosted Auxerre (Ligue 1) on 4 September. For Auxerre, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed.
Auxerre stood 13th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with nine points from seven matches.
six goals for and ten against accompanied Le Mans's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 3-0 defeat at home to Toulouse (16 October) was their most recent result.
Ligue 1, 16 October brought a home meeting with Toulouse; Le Mans lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Le Mans visited PSG on 10 October (Ligue 1) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Lorient travelled to face Le Mans (Ligue 1) on 19 September. For Le Mans, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Le Mans's result against RC Lens on 13 September (Ligue 1), playing at home; Le Mans drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 5 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Le Mans with Nice. Le Mans drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
Le Mans: 16th, six points, seven matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
After the match
Auxerre and Le Mans drew 1-1 on 25 October 2026. Lucas Buadés opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Le Mans, set up by Lucas Bretelle, to make it 1-0. Cameron Archer levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Auxerre to make it 1-1. Alexandre Lauray (21'), Lucas Buadés (26') and Kevin Danois (69') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Le Mans are 71 points stronger than Auxerre. Auxerre: one yellow card. Auxerre made five changes. Le Mans: two yellow cards. Le Mans made five changes.