Prior record: 11-8-9 across 28 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Ligue 1. Today those sides rate 1587 and 1569, 18 apart, which resolves to 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.7%.
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +87 and +69. Attack/defence pairs: 1.17/1.04 and 0.97/0.86. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 49.8% / 25.0% / 25.3%. That one did not come off. Rounded, that is 1-1. Distance between the ratings: 18 points, narrow on this scale. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Monaco has the better scoring rate (1.17) and Lille the better defensive one (0.86). Top of the distribution: Monaco, 49.3%. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.7%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Someone wins 75.0% of the time by this model. With 52 and 46 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The leading outcome clears the second by 23.6 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.51 and 1.36. Played and finished 1-1. Spread across the three results is 24.2 points. The higher rating expects 61.7% of the points, the lower 38.3%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Monaco came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six. On 18 October, Monaco recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Lorient.
Monaco's away from home game on 18 October (Ligue 1) ended 0-1 against Lorient, with zero goals for and one against. On 10 October, Toulouse faced Monaco in Ligue 1: Monaco drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Ligue 1, 18 September brought a home meeting with RC Lens; Monaco won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Monaco visited Strasbourg on 12 September (Ligue 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. PSG hosted Monaco (Ligue 1) on 4 September. For Monaco, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
Monaco stood 5th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with 14 points from seven matches.
Lille: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, ten conceded. Latest: a 4-2 defeat at home to Galatasaray on 21 October.
Lille hosted Galatasaray on 21 October (Champions League) and lost 2-4; their goals totalled two, compared with four conceded. Brest travelled to face Lille (Ligue 1) on 17 October. For Lille, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-3 was Lille's result against Arsenal on 13 October (Champions League), playing away from home; Lille lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Lille with Le Havre. Lille won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Nice (Ligue 1), Lille finished 1-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
14 points in seven matches put Lille 3rd in the pre-match results-based Ligue 1 standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Lille on 10 May and a 1-0 home win for Lille on 24 August 2025.
After the match
Monaco and Lille drew 1-1 on 25 October 2026. Ethan Mbappé opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Lille, set up by Soriba Diaoune, to make it 1-0. Edan Diop levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Monaco, set up by Jordan Teze, to make it 1-1. Nianzou Kouassi (66') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Mamadou Coulibaly (32'), Hákon Haraldsson (34'), Mathys Detourbet (56'), Romain Perraud (66'), Vanderson (90') and Maxima Goffi (90'). three yellow cards went to Monaco. Monaco: four substitutions. After coming on for Monaco in minute 15, Mathys Detourbet was booked. Edan Diop scored in minute 74 following entry for Monaco in the 46th minute. Lille: four yellow cards and one red card. Lille made four changes. Maxima Goffi was booked following entry for Lille in the 69th minute.