On record: 36 meetings from 2010, 78-40 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in Ligue 1. Against that, current ratings read 1852 and 1608, a 244-point margin, and the model splits the tie 77.0% / 17.2% / 5.9%.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The four component numbers read 1.96, 0.84, 1.17, 0.84. Result on the day: 2-0. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Someone wins 82.9% of the time by this model. A 244-point spread sits between the two figures. Most likely single result is PSG on 77.0%. With 63 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The forecast we stored before the match was 73.0% / 18.6% / 8.3%. It landed. Versus the 1500 seed: +352 and +108. A 71.1-point range top to bottom. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 9.1% — not a strong call. One edge each: scoring to PSG (1.96 v 1.17), conceding to Olympique Lyon (0.84 v 0.84). The higher-rated side expects 85.6% of the points; the other side 14.4%. PSG leads the distribution by 59.8 points over the draw. Its point estimate is 2-1.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
PSG: five wins over five games; 16 goals scored, seven conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 4-2 win at home to Barça on 20 October.
4-2 was PSG's result against Barça on 20 October (Champions League), playing at home; PSG won, with four scored to two conceded. The 17 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired PSG with Strasbourg. PSG won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Man City (Champions League), PSG finished 4-2 on 14 October. Their score comprised four goals, against two from the opposition. 10 October: PSG won 3-1 against Le Mans at home in Ligue 1, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Marseille in Ligue 1, PSG scored two and conceded one on 20 September; the away from home result was 2-1.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed PSG 5th after seven matches and 14 points.
Olympique Lyon came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding four. On 18 October, Olympique Lyon recorded a 2-1 win hosting Nice; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Stade Rennais on 19 September.
Nice travelled to face Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1) on 18 October. For Olympique Lyon, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Olympique Lyon's result against RC Lens on 9 October (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Olympique Lyon lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 19 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Olympique Lyon with Stade Rennais. Olympique Lyon won 4-0 at home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Paris FC (Ligue 1), Olympique Lyon finished 0-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 4 September: Olympique Lyon won 3-1 against Auxerre at home in Ligue 1, scoring three goals and allowing one.
Olympique Lyon: 4th, 14 points, seven matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 away win for Olympique Lyon on 19 April and a 3-2 away win for PSG on 9 November 2025.
After the match
PSG beat Olympique Lyon 2-0 on 26 October 2026. Senny Mayulu opened the scoring 72 minutes into the game for PSG, set up by Mika Godts, to make it 1-0. Mika Godts added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for PSG, set up by Quentin Ndjantou, to make it 2-0. Vitinha (31'), Maghnes Akliouche (51') and Ernest Nuamah (74') were booked. PSG: 77% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. PSG's current recorded form ends with 9 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Ligue 1 and the 2026/27 Champions League. PSG picked up two yellow cards. PSG: five substitutions. After coming on for PSG in minute 57, Mika Godts scored in minute 84 and provided an assist. Senny Mayulu scored in minute 72 following entry for PSG in the 65th minute. Quentin Ndjantou, on in the 81st minute, provided an assist. Olympique Lyon: one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Olympique Lyon. PSG kept their opponents scoreless.