The head-to-head counts 34 recorded meetings since 2010: 16 to Nice, 10 to Stade Rennais, 8 drawn, 47-40 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-4 in Ligue 1. The live ratings are 1477 and 1579, giving 31.3% / 26.7% / 42.0%.
Spread across the three results is 15.3 points. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/1.12 and 1.48/1.34. No scoreline clear 8% individually. A 10.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Behind them are 43 and 43 rated matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 24.7% / 24.8% / 50.5%. The result went the other way. The higher-rated side expects 55.3% of the points; the other side 44.7%. 102 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Rounded, that is 1-2. 73.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. It ended 5-2. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 7.8%. xG: 1.86 to 2.23. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. One half each — Stade Rennais in front on 1.48, Nice behind on 1.12. The model's preferred outcome is Stade Rennais at 42.0%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -23 and +79.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Nice: three wins and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 2-1 win away to Brest on 23 October.
On 23 October, Brest faced Nice in Ligue 1: Nice won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. Ligue 1, 18 October brought an away meeting with Olympique Lyon; Nice lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Nice hosted Strasbourg on 11 October (Ligue 1) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Lille travelled to face Nice (Ligue 1) on 20 September. For Nice, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was Nice's result against Auxerre on 12 September (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Nice lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Nice 10th after eight matches and 11 points.
Stade Rennais came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding nine. On 25 October, Stade Rennais recorded a 3-0 win hosting Strasbourg.
The 25 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Stade Rennais with Strasbourg. Stade Rennais won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Paris FC (Ligue 1), Stade Rennais finished 3-4 on 18 October. Their score comprised three goals, against four from the opposition. 11 October: Stade Rennais won 4-1 against Auxerre at home in Ligue 1, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Olympique Lyon in Ligue 1, Stade Rennais scored zero and conceded four on 19 September; the away from home result was 0-4. Stade Rennais's at home game on 11 September (Ligue 1) ended 1-0 against Marseille, with one goal for and zero against.
Stade Rennais: 2nd, 16 points, eight matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-0 away win for Stade Rennais on 8 March and a 2-1 away win for Nice on 26 October 2025.
After the match
Nice comfortably beat Stade Rennais 5-2 on 30 October 2026. Sepe Elye Wahi opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 12 minutes for Nice to make it 1-0. Sebastian Szymański levelled it inside the first 15 minutes for Stade Rennais, set up by Mahamadou Nagida, to make it 1-1. Nice regained the lead through Sepe Elye Wahi from the penalty spot in the 34th minute to make it 2-1. Jonathan Clauss added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Nice, set up by Sepe Elye Wahi, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Nice extended the lead through Mohammed Amoura 52 minutes into the game, set up by Sofiane Diop, to make it 4-1. Boulaye Dia got one back from the penalty spot 58 minutes into the game for Stade Rennais to make it 2-4. Sepe Elye Wahi scored the 7th goal for Nice 73 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Gauthier Hein, to make it 5-2. 7 players were booked, among them Anthony Rouault (61'), Sepe Elye Wahi (62'), Mohamed Abdelmonem (84'), Mahdi Camara (84'), Youssouf Ndayishimiye (84') and Charlie Cresswell (84'). Our current Elo ratings make Stade Rennais clearly the stronger side, by 102 rating points over Nice, even though it was Nice who won this one. On current ratings the model puts Nice at around 1.86 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Nice: four yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Nice. Gauthier Hein provided an assist following entry for Nice in the 68th minute. Stade Rennais: three yellow cards. Stade Rennais made five changes. Mahdi Camara, on in the 46th minute, was booked.