Prior record: 17-12-1 across 30 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in Ligue 1. The present numbers are 1572 against 1505, and the model turns that into 56.4% / 23.4% / 20.2%.
Spread across the three results is 36.2 points. The split is one apiece: Marseille leads the attacking rate on 1.36, Toulouse the defensive on 1.04. A 33.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 68.1% to 31.9%. Most likely single result is Marseille on 56.4%. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 67 points. The model gives 76.6% to someone winning. With 51 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The match finished 2-0. Higher rating: the home side. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. The xG line reads 2.10 to 1.45. In absolute terms: Marseille 1.36/1.09, Toulouse 0.98/1.04 on attack and defence. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +72 and +5. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.2%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Marseille: three wins and two defeats over five games; 12 goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 4-3 win at home to Le Havre on 25 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 away to Angers SCO on 18 October.
On 25 October, Le Havre faced Marseille in Ligue 1: Marseille won 4-3 at home, having scored four and conceded three. Ligue 1, 18 October brought an away meeting with Angers SCO; Marseille won 5-2, a return of five goals scored and two conceded. Marseille visited Troyes on 11 October (Ligue 1) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. PSG travelled to face Marseille (Ligue 1) on 20 September. For Marseille, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-1 was Marseille's result against Stade Rennais on 11 September (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Marseille lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
12 points in eight matches put Marseille 9th in the pre-match results-based Ligue 1 standings.
Toulouse were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring ten goals and conceding six. On 25 October, Toulouse recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Troyes; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Le Mans on 16 October.
Troyes travelled to face Toulouse (Ligue 1) on 25 October. For Toulouse, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Toulouse's result against Le Mans on 16 October (Ligue 1), playing away from home; Toulouse won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 10 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Toulouse with Monaco. Toulouse drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Le Havre (Ligue 1), Toulouse finished 3-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 12 September: Toulouse drew 2-2 against Lorient away from home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Toulouse stood 11th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with ten points from eight matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Marseille on 7 March and a 2-2 draw at Marseille on 4 March.
After the match
Marseille beat Toulouse 2-0 on 1 November 2026. Amine Harit opened the scoring inside the first minute for Marseille, set up by Amine Gouiri, to make it 1-0. Amine Gouiri added to the tally in the 25th minute for Marseille, set up by Igor Paixão, to make it 2-0. Pierre Emile Højbjerg (44'), CJ Egan-Riley (78') and Santiago Hidalgo (86') were booked. Marseille's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 56.4% for a win in this pairing. Marseille's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. The card tally for Marseille was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Marseille. The card tally for Toulouse was one yellow card. Toulouse made five changes. Santiago Hidalgo was booked following entry for Toulouse in the 57th minute. A clean sheet for Marseille.