Prior record: 0-1-5 across 6 since 2023. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Ligue 1. The present numbers are 1364 against 1852, and the model turns that into 1.0% / 15.0% / 84.0%.
The rating gap itself is 488 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Rounded, that is 0-3. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Attack/defence pairs: 0.79/1.30 and 1.96/0.84. The gap between first and second outcome is 69.0 points, PSG ahead of the draw. Before kickoff our model had this at 2.8% / 15.0% / 82.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward PSG: 1.96 to 0.79 going forward, 0.84 to 1.30 going back. Expected goals come out at 0.98 to 3.46. Behind them are 43 and 63 rated matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -136 and +352. 84.0% goes to PSG, the model's lean. The distribution runs from 84.0% down to 1.0%. The scoreline spread is even — 0-3 on 8.1% leads, but only just. Win-or-lose totals 85.0%; the draw takes the rest.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Le Havre: one draw and four defeats over five games; six goals scored, 11 conceded, without a win. Latest: a 4-3 defeat away to Marseille on 25 October.
Against Marseille in Ligue 1, Le Havre scored three and conceded four on 25 October; the away from home result was 3-4. Le Havre's at home game on 18 October (Ligue 1) ended 1-3 against Auxerre, with one goal for and three against. On 10 October, Lille faced Le Havre in Ligue 1: Le Havre lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Ligue 1, 19 September brought an away meeting with Toulouse; Le Havre lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Le Havre hosted Angers SCO on 12 September (Ligue 1) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Le Havre 18th after eight matches and two points.
PSG: five wins over five games; 16 goals scored, six conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Olympique Lyon on 26 October.
Playing at home against Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1), PSG finished 2-0 on 26 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 20 October: PSG won 4-2 against Barça at home in Champions League, scoring four goals and allowing two. Against Strasbourg in Ligue 1, PSG scored three and conceded one on 17 October; the away from home result was 3-1. PSG's away from home game on 14 October (Champions League) ended 4-2 against Man City, with four goals for and two against. On 10 October, Le Mans faced PSG in Ligue 1: PSG won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed PSG 1st after eight matches and 17 points.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 away win for PSG on 28 February and a 3-0 home win for PSG on 22 November 2025.
After the match
PSG overwhelmed Le Havre 5-1 on 30 October 2026. Josh Maja opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Le Havre, set up by Rayan Fofana, to make it 1-0. Mika Godts levelled it in the 26th minute for PSG, set up by Achraf Hakimi, to make it 1-1. Achraf Hakimi put PSG in front in the 28th minute, set up by Senny Mayulu, to make it 2-1. Achraf Hakimi added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for PSG to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, PSG extended the lead through Senny Mayulu 62 minutes into the game, set up by Achraf Hakimi, to make it 4-1. Achraf Hakimi scored the 6th goal for PSG 69 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 5-1. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have PSG 488 points stronger than Le Havre. PSG: 84% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Le Havre's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats. PSG's current recorded form ends with 9 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Ligue 1 and the 2026/27 Champions League. Le Havre made five changes. PSG: three substitutions. The scoring record shows one lead change. PSG won after falling behind.