Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in Ligue 2. Today those sides rate 1512 and 1522, 10 apart, which resolves to 44.8% / 26.1% / 29.1%.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. With 238 and 40 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. There is no trade-off to weigh: Le Mans scores at the higher rate (1.05 to 0.88) and concedes at the lower (1.15 to 1.18). It ended 2-0. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The three results cover 18.7 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.5%. Troyes sits 15.7 points above the next most likely result. As a single number the model says 1-1. Troyes carries the largest share, 44.8%. A decisive result carries 73.9% against 26.1% for the draw. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Expected shares 57.8% against 42.2% on Elo. In absolute terms: Troyes 0.88/1.18, Le Mans 1.05/1.15 on attack and defence. xG: 1.51 to 1.68. A 10-point spread sits between the two figures. The forecast we stored before the match was 36.5% / 27.9% / 35.6%. It landed.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Troyes arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording one draw and four defeats, scoring one goal and conceding nine, failing to score in four of those games. On 25 October, Troyes recorded a 0-0 draw visiting Toulouse.
Troyes's away from home game on 25 October (Ligue 1) ended 0-0 against Toulouse, with zero goals for and zero against. On 17 October, RC Lens faced Troyes in Ligue 1: Troyes lost 1-3 at home, having scored one and conceded three. Ligue 1, 11 October brought a home meeting with Marseille; Troyes lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Troyes visited Angers SCO on 19 September (Ligue 1) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Lille hosted Troyes (Ligue 1) on 13 September. For Troyes, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
Troyes stood 17th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with five points from eight matches.
Le Mans came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding ten. On 25 October, Le Mans recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Auxerre.
Auxerre hosted Le Mans (Ligue 1) on 25 October. For Le Mans, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-3 was Le Mans's result against Toulouse on 16 October (Ligue 1), playing at home; Le Mans lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Le Mans with PSG. Le Mans lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Lorient (Ligue 1), Le Mans finished 2-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 13 September: Le Mans drew 2-2 against RC Lens at home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Le Mans stood 15th in the results-based Ligue 1 table before kickoff, with seven points from eight matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 away win for Le Mans on 31 January and a 2-2 draw at Le Mans on 3 October 2025.
After the match
Troyes beat Le Mans 2-0 on 31 October 2026. Mouhamed Diop opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Troyes, set up by Timothée Nkada, to make it 1-0. Ismaëlben Boura added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Troyes to make it 2-0. 7 players were booked, among them Michel Diaz (18'), Raúl Torrente (47'), Paolo Gozzi Iweru (52'), Nicolas Kocik (67'), Ismaëlben Boura (69') and Noa Boisse (74'). Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Le Mans just 10 rating points ahead of Troyes, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Troyes won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. The card tally for Troyes was three yellow cards. Troyes made five changes. Ismaëlben Boura scored in minute 71 and was booked following entry for Troyes in the 66th minute. The card tally for Le Mans was four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Le Mans. Troyes finished with a clean sheet.