2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 5-1. The latest was 2026, 4-1 in Ligue 1. History aside, the live ratings of 1594 and 1567 drive a 50.6% / 24.8% / 24.7% distribution.
A decisive result carries 75.3% against 24.8% for the draw. Logged in advance of kickoff — 45.4% / 25.9% / 28.6%. That call matched the result. The home side is rated higher. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.97 and 1.42. Both figures rest on decent samples, 43 and 53 matches. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Paris FC is ahead on each half — 1.20 to 1.15 in attack, 0.92 to 1.11 in defence. Point estimate: 1-1. Spread across the three results is 25.9 points. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +94 and +67. Most likely single result is Paris FC on 50.6%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.4%. Rating separation comes to 27 points. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 0.92 against 1.15 and 1.11. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. By expected share of the points: 62.9% and 37.1%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Paris FC came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. A 2-1 defeat away to RC Lens (24 October) was their most recent result.
The 24 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Paris FC with RC Lens. Paris FC lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Stade Rennais (Ligue 1), Paris FC finished 4-3 on 18 October. Their score comprised four goals, against three from the opposition. 10 October: Paris FC lost 0-1 against Lorient away from home in Ligue 1, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Paris FC scored two and conceded one on 19 September; the at home result was 2-1. Paris FC's at home game on 12 September (Ligue 1) ended 0-0 against Olympique Lyon, with zero goals for and zero against.
Paris FC: 6th, 14 points, eight matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
Monaco: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Lille on 25 October.
1-1 was Monaco's result against Lille on 25 October (Ligue 1), playing at home; Monaco drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 18 October fixture (Ligue 1) paired Monaco with Lorient. Monaco lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Toulouse (Ligue 1), Monaco finished 2-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 18 September: Monaco won 2-1 against RC Lens at home in Ligue 1, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Monaco scored one and conceded one on 12 September; the away from home result was 1-1.
Before kickoff, Ligue 1's results-based standings placed Monaco 4th after eight matches and 15 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-1 home win for Paris FC on 10 April and a 1-0 away win for Paris FC on 1 November 2025.
After the match
Paris FC beat Monaco 3-1 on 1 November 2026. Lassine Sinayoko opened the scoring in the 38th minute for Paris FC, set up by Maxime López, to make it 1-0. Lassine Sinayoko added to the tally in the 44th minute for Paris FC, set up by Moses Simon, to make it 2-0. Folarin Balogun pulled one back 65 minutes into the game for Monaco, set up by Vanderson, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Paris FC extended the lead through Pablo Pagis 74 minutes into the game, set up by Lassine Sinayoko, to make it 3-1. Vanderson (68') and Hamari Traoré (85') were booked. one yellow card went to Paris FC. Paris FC: four substitutions. The card tally for Monaco was one yellow card. Monaco made five changes. Folarin Balogun entered for Monaco at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 65.