On record: 13 meetings from 2019, 14-26 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in Eredivisie. Today those sides rate 1419 and 1593, 174 apart, which resolves to 22.6% / 24.2% / 53.2%.
The higher rating expects 65.2% of the points, the lower 34.8%. 174 points of rating separation. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 1.37 against 1.32 and 0.94. The distribution runs from 53.2% down to 22.6%. Goal expectation splits 1.41 to 2.46. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Neither component contradicts the other: Twente leads 1.32-1.02 forward and 0.94-1.37 back. The ratings draw on 34 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The model's preferred outcome is Twente at 53.2%. Played and finished 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 75.8%; the draw takes the rest. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 8.9% — not a strong call. Twente leads the distribution by 29.0 points over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Versus the 1500 seed: -81 and +93.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Sittard: three wins and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, 11 conceded. Willem II were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 1-0 win.
On 19 September, Willem II faced Sittard in Eredivisie: Sittard won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Eredivisie, 12 September brought a home meeting with Ajax; Sittard lost 1-5, a return of one goal scored and five conceded. Sittard visited Den Haag on 6 September (Eredivisie) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Groningen hosted Sittard (Eredivisie) on 28 August. For Sittard, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-2 was Sittard's result against AZ on 22 August (Eredivisie), playing at home; Sittard lost, with zero scored to two conceded.
13 points in seven matches put Sittard 6th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Twente: four wins and one draw over five games; 12 goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-2 win at home to PSV on 20 September; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Cambuur on 30 August.
Playing at home against PSV (Eredivisie), Twente finished 3-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 12 September: Twente won 2-0 against Den Haag at home in Eredivisie, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Telstar in Eredivisie, Twente scored one and conceded zero on 9 September; the at home result was 1-0. Twente's away from home game on 6 September (Eredivisie) ended 2-2 against Groningen, with two goals for and two against. On 30 August, Cambuur faced Twente in Eredivisie: Twente won 4-1 away from home, having scored four and conceded one.
16 points in seven matches put Twente 4th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Twente on 21 March and a 3-2 home win for Twente on 26 September 2025.
After the match
Sittard and Twente drew 1-1 on 10 October 2026. Anthony Descotte opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Sittard, set up by Mohammed Ihattaren, to make it 1-0. Robin Pröpper levelled it in the 34th minute for Twente, set up by Wout Weghorst, to make it 1-1. Bart van Rooij (74') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Twente 174 points stronger than Sittard. Twente are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. The substitution total for Sittard was four. Twente picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Twente was three.