Across 18 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 5-4-9 from Excelsior's side on wins, 17-29 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-2 in Eredivisie. Against that, current ratings read 1460 and 1503, a 43-point margin, and the model splits the tie 39.5% / 27.2% / 33.3%.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -40 and +3. One half each — Excelsior in front on 1.11, Groningen behind on 0.98. Excelsior leads the distribution by 6.2 points over Groningen. Most likely single result is Excelsior on 39.5%. The three results cover 12.3 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.1% leads, but only just. As a single number the model says 1-1. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. The two ratings differ by 43 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. The tie closed out 1-5. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Expected shares 53.2% against 46.8% on Elo. Raw profiles are 1.11 and 1.13 against 1.09 and 0.98. On expected goals the model has it 1.62 against 1.66.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and seven against accompanied Excelsior's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 2-2 draw away to Ajax (19 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Willem II on 5 September.
Ajax hosted Excelsior (Eredivisie) on 19 September. For Excelsior, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Excelsior's result against Utrecht on 13 September (Eredivisie), playing at home; Excelsior lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 8 September fixture (Eredivisie) paired Excelsior with NEC. Excelsior drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Willem II (Eredivisie), Excelsior finished 3-0 on 5 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 29 August: Excelsior won 2-1 against Sparta at home in Eredivisie, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Excelsior: 7th, 11 points, seven matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
Groningen's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 11 conceded. Zwolle were their latest opponents, at home on 18 September: a 3-0 win.
Playing at home against Zwolle (Eredivisie), Groningen finished 3-0 on 18 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 12 September: Groningen drew 1-1 against Go Ahead away from home in Eredivisie, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Twente in Eredivisie, Groningen scored two and conceded two on 6 September; the at home result was 2-2. Groningen's at home game on 28 August (Eredivisie) ended 2-3 against Sittard, with two goals for and three against. On 23 August, PSV faced Groningen in Eredivisie: Groningen lost 1-5 away from home, having scored one and conceded five.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed Groningen 9th after seven matches and 11 points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-2 away win for Excelsior on 2 May and a 2-0 away win for Groningen on 5 December 2025.
After the match
Groningen overwhelmed Excelsior 5-1 on 11 October 2026. Marco Rente opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Groningen to make it 1-0. Irakli Yegoian levelled it from the penalty spot in the 36th minute for Excelsior to make it 1-1. Groningen regained the lead through Stijn van Gassel (an own goal) in the 38th minute to make it 2-1. Thom van Bergen added to the tally from the penalty spot 64 minutes into the game for Groningen to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Groningen extended the lead through Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson 67 minutes into the game, set up by Pelle Clement, to make it 4-1. Marco Rente scored the 6th goal for Groningen in the 95th minute as they extended the lead to make it 5-1. David van der Werff (20') and Tygo Land (80') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Groningen are 43 points stronger than Excelsior. On current ratings the model puts Groningen at around 1.66 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Groningen are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Excelsior made five changes. Groningen picked up two yellow cards. Groningen: five substitutions. Tygo Land, on in the 66th minute, was booked.