On record: 22 meetings from 2010, 19-68 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2021, 2-2 in Eredivisie. The live ratings are 1334 and 1670, giving 8.1% / 18.5% / 73.4%.
The xG line reads 1.41 to 4.13. It ended 2-1. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The away side is rated higher. 73.4% goes to PSV, the model's lean. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -166 and +170. PSV is ahead on each half — 1.90 to 0.93 in attack, 1.02 to 1.61 in defence. The leading outcome clears the second by 54.9 points. 336 points of rating separation. Expected shares 17.4% against 82.6% on Elo. Between best and worst outcome there is 65.3 points of daylight. Attack/defence pairs: 0.93/1.61 and 1.90/1.02. With 393 and 53 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Rounded, that is 1-4. Someone wins 81.5% of the time by this model. 1-4 leads the scorelines at 6.7% — not a strong call.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Den Haag's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 10 conceded, with no wins. Telstar were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 2-2 draw.
Against Telstar in Eredivisie, Den Haag scored two and conceded two on 11 October; the away from home result was 2-2. Den Haag's at home game on 19 September (Eredivisie) ended 1-1 against Cambuur, with one goal for and one against. On 12 September, Twente faced Den Haag in Eredivisie: Den Haag lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Eredivisie, 6 September brought a home meeting with Sittard; Den Haag lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Den Haag visited Feyenoord on 30 August (Eredivisie) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed Den Haag 17th after eight matches and three points.
PSV came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding six. On 13 October, PSV recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting RB Leipzig; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Sparta on 13 September.
Champions League, 13 October brought an away meeting with RB Leipzig; PSV lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. PSV hosted Heerenveen on 9 October (Eredivisie) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Twente hosted PSV (Eredivisie) on 20 September. For PSV, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 4-1 was PSV's result against Sparta on 13 September (Eredivisie), playing at home; PSV won, with four scored to one conceded. The 10 September fixture (Champions League) paired PSV with Shaktar. PSV drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
PSV stood 2nd in the results-based Eredivisie table before kickoff, with 19 points from eight matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-2 draw at Den Haag on 13 February 2021 and a 4-0 home win for PSV on 1 November 2020.
After the match
Den Haag edged past PSV 2-1 on 17 October 2026. Sven Mijnans opened the scoring in the 21st minute for PSV, set up by Guus Til, to make it 1-0. Juho Kilo levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Den Haag, set up by Yannick Eduardo, to make it 1-1. Matěj Šín put Den Haag in front in the 93rd minute, set up by Evan Rottier, to make it 2-1. Sven Mijnans (43') was sent off. Sven Mijnans (38'), Sekou Sylla (42'), Othniel Raterink (69') and Pascal Mulder (73') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make PSV clearly the stronger side, by 336 rating points over Den Haag, even though it was Den Haag who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Den Haag only an 8.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Den Haag: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Den Haag. Othniel Raterink entered for Den Haag at 46 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Den Haag in minute 46, Matěj Šín scored in minute 93. PSV picked up one yellow card and one red card. PSV: four substitutions. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. The winners, Den Haag, had been behind.