On record: 22 meetings from 2010, 22-33 on aggregate, 9 drawn. Their most recent was 2021, 0-3 in Eredivisie. The present numbers are 1317 against 1544, and the model turns that into 17.1% / 22.3% / 60.6%.
The four component numbers read 0.91, 1.59, 1.26, 0.95. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Heerenveen holds both halves of the profile — 1.26 against 0.91 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.59 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.7%. A 43.5-point range top to bottom. The match finished 2-3. The rating gap itself is 227 points, which is wide by the model's standards. 60.6% goes to Heerenveen, the model's lean. Goal expectation splits 1.28 to 2.71. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Both figures rest on decent samples, 395 and 45 matches. Win-or-lose totals 77.7%; the draw takes the rest. As a single number the model says 1-2. Heerenveen sits 38.3 points above the next most likely result. Elo expected shares: 28.2% and 71.8%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -183 and +44.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Den Haag: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, nine conceded. Latest: a 2-1 win at home to PSV on 17 October.
Against PSV in Eredivisie, Den Haag scored two and conceded one on 17 October; the at home result was 2-1. Den Haag's away from home game on 11 October (Eredivisie) ended 2-2 against Telstar, with two goals for and two against. On 19 September, Cambuur faced Den Haag in Eredivisie: Den Haag drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Eredivisie, 12 September brought an away meeting with Twente; Den Haag lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Den Haag hosted Sittard on 6 September (Eredivisie) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded.
six points in nine matches put Den Haag 17th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Heerenveen's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 5 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Excelsior were their latest opponents, at home on 16 October: a 4-0 win.
On 16 October, Excelsior faced Heerenveen in Eredivisie: Heerenveen won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero. Eredivisie, 9 October brought an away meeting with PSV; Heerenveen lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Heerenveen visited Sparta on 19 September (Eredivisie) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Telstar travelled to face Heerenveen (Eredivisie) on 13 September. For Heerenveen, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-3 was Heerenveen's result against AZ on 6 September (Eredivisie), playing at home; Heerenveen lost, with two scored to three conceded.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed Heerenveen 9th after nine matches and 12 points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-0 home win for Heerenveen on 6 March 2021 and a 1-1 draw at Den Haag on 28 November 2020.
After the match
Heerenveen edged past Den Haag 3-2 on 24 October 2026. Jacob Trenskow opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Heerenveen, set up by Maxence Rivera, to make it 1-0. Ringo Meerveld added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Heerenveen, set up by Oliver Braude, to make it 2-0. Nigel Thomas pulled one back 57 minutes into the game for Den Haag to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Heerenveen extended the lead through Jacob Trenskow 66 minutes into the game, set up by Maxence Rivera, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Den Haag reduced the deficit through Nigel Thomas 72 minutes into the game, set up by Evan Rottier, to make it 2-3. Yannick Eduardo (59') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Heerenveen 227 points stronger than Den Haag. 60.6% is Heerenveen's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. The card tally for Den Haag was one yellow card. Den Haag made five changes. Nigel Thomas scored two times in minutes 57, 72 following entry for Den Haag in the 56th minute. The substitution total for Heerenveen was four.