Across 8 recorded meetings back to 2018 the split is 4-2-2 in Sittard's favour on wins, 15-11 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-1 in Eredivisie. History aside, the live ratings of 1469 and 1437 drive a 51.3% / 24.6% / 24.1% distribution.
By expected share of the points: 63.6% and 36.4%. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. The model's preferred outcome is Sittard at 51.3%. 75.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -31 and -63. With 45 and 44 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The xG line reads 2.11 to 1.86. A 26.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. In absolute terms: Sittard 1.09/1.26, Excelsior 1.09/1.31 on attack and defence. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 1.09 against 1.09, defence 1.26 against 1.31. Final score: 1-0. The two ratings differ by 32 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 7.8%. The distribution runs from 51.3% down to 24.1%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Sittard: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, ten conceded. NEC were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 2-2 draw.
Sittard visited NEC on 18 October (Eredivisie) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Twente travelled to face Sittard (Eredivisie) on 10 October. For Sittard, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Sittard's result against Willem II on 19 September (Eredivisie), playing away from home; Sittard won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 12 September fixture (Eredivisie) paired Sittard with Ajax. Sittard lost 1-5 at home, netting one goal while conceding five. Playing away from home against Den Haag (Eredivisie), Sittard finished 3-2 on 6 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition.
15 points in nine matches put Sittard 7th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
six goals for and 15 against accompanied Excelsior's two draws and three defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 4-0 defeat away to Heerenveen (16 October) was their most recent result.
Eredivisie, 16 October brought an away meeting with Heerenveen; Excelsior lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Excelsior hosted Groningen on 11 October (Eredivisie) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Ajax hosted Excelsior (Eredivisie) on 19 September. For Excelsior, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Excelsior's result against Utrecht on 13 September (Eredivisie), playing at home; Excelsior lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 8 September fixture (Eredivisie) paired Excelsior with NEC. Excelsior drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two.
Excelsior: 12th, 11 points, nine matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for Sittard on 20 February and a 1-0 home win for Excelsior on 19 October 2025.
After the match
Sittard edged past Excelsior 1-0 on 25 October 2026. Rodrigo Guth opened the scoring in the 91st minute for Sittard, set up by Mohammed Ihattaren, to make it 1-0. Sven Simons (41'), Shiloh 't Zand (58') and Irakli Yegoian (68') were booked. Sittard are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Eredivisie. two yellow cards went to Sittard. The substitution total for Sittard was five. After coming on for Sittard in minute 82, Mohammed Ihattaren provided an assist. Excelsior: one yellow card. Excelsior made four changes. Sittard kept their opponents scoreless.