On record: 20 meetings from 2010, 38-32 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in Eredivisie. The live ratings are 1511 and 1521, giving 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2%.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +11 and +21. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The four component numbers read 1.25, 1.16, 1.42, 1.25. 10 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Outcomes span 18.6 points. NEC leads the distribution by 15.5 points over Groningen. As a single number the model says 2-2. The underlying goal expectation is 2.33 for NEC, 2.22 for Groningen. With 45 and 44 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Result on the day: 2-2. 2-2 leads the scorelines at 7.1% — not a strong call. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.8% to 42.2%. Groningen has the better scoring rate (1.42) and NEC the better defensive one (1.16). These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. NEC carries the largest share, 44.7%. Someone wins 73.9% of the time by this model.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
NEC's previous five results comprised four draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 9 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to Sittard on 18 October.
Playing at home against Sittard (Eredivisie), NEC finished 2-2 on 18 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 10 October: NEC drew 1-1 against Ajax away from home in Eredivisie, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Go Ahead in Eredivisie, NEC scored one and conceded one on 20 September; the at home result was 1-1. NEC's away from home game on 12 September (Eredivisie) ended 0-3 against Cambuur, with zero goals for and three against. On 8 September, Excelsior faced NEC in Eredivisie: NEC drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed NEC 13th after nine matches and ten points.
Groningen: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; 13 goals scored, nine conceded. Latest: a 5-2 defeat at home to Ajax on 18 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 away to Excelsior on 11 October.
Against Ajax in Eredivisie, Groningen scored two and conceded five on 18 October; the at home result was 2-5. Groningen's away from home game on 11 October (Eredivisie) ended 5-1 against Excelsior, with five goals for and one against. On 18 September, Zwolle faced Groningen in Eredivisie: Groningen won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Eredivisie, 12 September brought an away meeting with Go Ahead; Groningen drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Groningen hosted Twente on 6 September (Eredivisie) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded.
14 points in nine matches put Groningen 8th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Groningen on 10 May and a 2-0 home win for NEC on 9 November 2025.
After the match
NEC and Groningen drew 2-2 on 25 October 2026. Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Groningen, set up by Marco Rente, to make it 1-0. Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson added to the tally in the 34th minute for Groningen, set up by Thom van Bergen, to make it 2-0. Clement Bischoff pulled one back 57 minutes into the game for NEC, set up by Darko Nejašmić, to make it 1-2. Noe Lebreton levelled it 71 minutes into the game for NEC to make it 2-2. Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson (42'), David van der Werff (56') and Hans Hateboer (79') were booked. four changes were recorded for NEC. three yellow cards went to Groningen. The substitution total for Groningen was four.