Across 31 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 15-5-11 in AZ's favour on wins, 52-44 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-2 in Eredivisie. The present numbers are 1545 against 1619, and the model turns that into 34.8% / 27.7% / 37.5%.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. With 45 and 44 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 72.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Expected goals come out at 1.49 to 1.81. Top of the distribution: Twente, 37.5%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.9%. The four component numbers read 1.19, 0.99, 1.35, 0.84. The two ratings differ by 74 points. By expected share of the points: 48.7% and 51.3%. Neither component contradicts the other: Twente leads 1.35-1.19 forward and 0.84-0.99 back. Result on the day: 0-2. Only 2.7 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Higher rating: the away side. All three results are bunched inside 9.8 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +45 and +119. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
AZ's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 7 conceded. Cambuur were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 2-2 draw.
Playing away from home against Cambuur (Eredivisie), AZ finished 2-2 on 18 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 10 October: AZ lost 0-2 against Feyenoord away from home in Eredivisie, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Telstar in Eredivisie, AZ scored one and conceded zero on 20 September; the at home result was 1-0. AZ's at home game on 11 September (Eredivisie) ended 1-1 against Willem II, with one goal for and one against. On 6 September, Heerenveen faced AZ in Eredivisie: AZ won 3-2 away from home, having scored three and conceded two.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed AZ 4th after nine matches and 20 points.
Twente: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat at home to Utrecht on 18 October.
Twente hosted Utrecht on 18 October (Eredivisie) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Sittard hosted Twente (Eredivisie) on 10 October. For Twente, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 3-2 was Twente's result against PSV on 20 September (Eredivisie), playing at home; Twente won, with three scored to two conceded. The 12 September fixture (Eredivisie) paired Twente with Den Haag. Twente won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Telstar (Eredivisie), Twente finished 1-0 on 9 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
17 points in nine matches put Twente 6th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-2 draw at AZ on 3 May and a 1-0 home win for Twente on 30 November 2025.
After the match
Twente beat AZ 2-0 on 25 October 2026. Sondre Ørjasæter opened the scoring late on, in the 84th minute for Twente, set up by Younes Taha, to make it 1-0. Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink added to the tally in the 93rd minute for Twente, set up by Joël Drommel, to make it 2-0. Daouda Weidmann (88') was sent off. Ro-Zangelo Daal (4'), Elijah Dijkstra (19'), Robin Pröpper (43'), Daouda Weidmann (50') and Ayoub Oufkir (70') were booked. three yellow cards went to AZ. AZ: five substitutions. After coming on for AZ in minute 63, Ayoub Oufkir was booked. Twente picked up two yellow cards and one red card. The substitution total for Twente was five. Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink entered for Twente at 73 minutes and later scored in minute 93. Twente kept their opponents scoreless.