On record: 32 meetings from 2010, 58-40 on aggregate, 8 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in Eredivisie. The present numbers are 1620 against 1545, and the model turns that into 57.6% / 23.1% / 19.3%.
Top of the distribution: Ajax, 57.6%. The match finished 1-0. The higher rating expects 69.1% of the points, the lower 30.9%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +120 and +45. xG: 2.35 to 1.45. 75 points of rating separation. Its point estimate is 2-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The ratings draw on 53 and 45 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The leading outcome clears the second by 34.5 points. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 9.0%. 76.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Both components point the same way, toward Ajax: 1.59 to 1.19 going forward, 0.90 to 0.99 going back. Scorelines above 8%: 1. A 38.3-point range top to bottom. Attack/defence pairs: 1.59/0.90 and 1.19/0.99.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
15 goals for and seven against accompanied Ajax's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 2-1 win away to Sparta (25 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Willem II on 15 September.
The 25 October fixture (Eredivisie) paired Ajax with Sparta. Ajax won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Groningen (Eredivisie), Ajax finished 5-2 on 18 October. Their score comprised five goals, against two from the opposition. 10 October: Ajax drew 1-1 against NEC at home in Eredivisie, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Excelsior in Eredivisie, Ajax scored two and conceded two on 19 September; the at home result was 2-2. Ajax's at home game on 15 September (Eredivisie) ended 5-1 against Willem II, with five goals for and one against.
Ajax: 3rd, 21 points, ten matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
AZ's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 7 conceded. Twente were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 2-0 defeat.
Playing at home against Twente (Eredivisie), AZ finished 0-2 on 25 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 18 October: AZ drew 2-2 against Cambuur away from home in Eredivisie, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Feyenoord in Eredivisie, AZ scored zero and conceded two on 10 October; the away from home result was 0-2. AZ's at home game on 20 September (Eredivisie) ended 1-0 against Telstar, with one goal for and zero against. On 11 September, Willem II faced AZ in Eredivisie: AZ drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed AZ 5th after ten matches and 20 points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at AZ on 8 February and a 2-0 away win for AZ on 18 October 2025.
After the match
Ajax edged past AZ 1-0 on 31 October 2026. Toluwalas Arokodare opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Ajax, set up by Abdellah Ouazane, to make it 1-0. Weslley Patati (26'), Abdellah Ouazane (30') and Mees De Wit (44') were booked. 57.6% is Ajax's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Ajax are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Eredivisie. The card tally for Ajax was one yellow card. Ajax made five changes. two yellow cards went to AZ. AZ: five substitutions. Ajax finished with a clean sheet.