Across 17 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 10-2-5 in Zwolle's favour on wins, 34-22 on goals. The last was 2021, 0-1 in Eredivisie. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1396 and 1317 — 79 points — for a 58.2% / 22.9% / 18.9% split.
Outcomes span 39.3 points. Most likely single result is Zwolle on 58.2%. 79 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The ratings draw on 45 and 395 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The edge is split: Den Haag scores at the higher rate (0.91 to 0.89), Zwolle concedes at the lower (1.49 to 1.59). Zwolle's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 69.6%. The match finished 1-0. In absolute terms: Zwolle 0.89/1.49, Den Haag 0.91/1.59 on attack and defence. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Zwolle leads the distribution by 35.3 points over the draw. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The underlying goal expectation is 2.11 for Zwolle, 1.82 for Den Haag. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 77.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and 13 against accompanied Zwolle's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 1-1 draw away to Utrecht (24 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Go Ahead on 18 October.
24 October: Zwolle drew 1-1 against Utrecht away from home in Eredivisie, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Go Ahead in Eredivisie, Zwolle scored four and conceded one on 18 October; the at home result was 4-1. Zwolle's at home game on 11 October (Eredivisie) ended 0-1 against Cambuur, with zero goals for and one against. On 18 September, Groningen faced Zwolle in Eredivisie: Zwolle lost 0-3 away from home, having scored zero and conceded three. Eredivisie, 13 September brought a home meeting with Feyenoord; Zwolle lost 0-7, a return of zero goals scored and seven conceded.
Zwolle stood 15th in the results-based Eredivisie table before kickoff, with eight points from ten matches.
seven goals for and nine against accompanied Den Haag's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 3-2 defeat at home to Heerenveen (24 October) was their most recent result.
Heerenveen travelled to face Den Haag (Eredivisie) on 24 October. For Den Haag, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 2-1 was Den Haag's result against PSV on 17 October (Eredivisie), playing at home; Den Haag won, with two scored to one conceded. The 11 October fixture (Eredivisie) paired Den Haag with Telstar. Den Haag drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Cambuur (Eredivisie), Den Haag finished 1-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Den Haag lost 0-2 against Twente away from home in Eredivisie, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
Den Haag stood 17th in the results-based Eredivisie table before kickoff, with six points from ten matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 away win for Den Haag on 9 May 2021 and a 2-0 away win for Zwolle on 23 December 2020.
After the match
Zwolle edged past Den Haag 1-0 on 1 November 2026. Dylan Mbayo opened the scoring in the 45th minute for Zwolle, set up by Younes Namli, to make it 1-0. Yannick Eduardo (48'), Pascal Mulder (52'), Olivier Aertssen (65'), Matteo Waem (72'), Gilles van der Wal (79') and Ibrahim Cissoko (81') were booked. Zwolle: 58.2% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Zwolle: three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Zwolle. Ibrahim Cissoko was booked following entry for Zwolle in the 73rd minute. Den Haag picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Den Haag was five. Zwolle finished with a clean sheet.