2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-5. The latest was 2026, 1-4 in Eredivisie. Currently 1438 against 1500 — a 36.5% / 27.9% / 35.6% split.
The xG line reads 2.57 to 2.26. The ratings draw on 45 and 45 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Only 0.9 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. All three results are bunched inside 8.6 points. The edge is split: Utrecht scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 1.19), Telstar concedes at the lower (1.34 to 1.46). The tie closed out 4-2. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -62 and 0. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Distance between the ratings: 62 points, moderate on this scale. In absolute terms: Telstar 1.19/1.34, Utrecht 1.25/1.46 on attack and defence. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 6.7%. Someone wins 72.1% of the time by this model. The single-scoreline output is 2-2. Top of the distribution: Telstar, 36.5%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and ten against accompanied Telstar's two draws and three defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 23 October, Telstar recorded a 3-2 defeat visiting Go Ahead.
Telstar's away from home game on 23 October (Eredivisie) ended 2-3 against Go Ahead, with two goals for and three against. On 17 October, Feyenoord faced Telstar in Eredivisie: Telstar lost 3-4 at home, having scored three and conceded four. Eredivisie, 11 October brought a home meeting with Den Haag; Telstar drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Telstar visited AZ on 20 September (Eredivisie) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Heerenveen hosted Telstar (Eredivisie) on 13 September. For Telstar, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Telstar: 16th, six points, ten matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
eight goals for and nine against accompanied Utrecht's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 1-1 draw at home to Zwolle (24 October) was their most recent result.
Utrecht's at home game on 24 October (Eredivisie) ended 1-1 against Zwolle, with one goal for and one against. On 18 October, Twente faced Utrecht in Eredivisie: Utrecht won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. Eredivisie, 11 October brought a home meeting with Willem II; Utrecht won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Utrecht visited Feyenoord on 20 September (Eredivisie) and lost 0-5; their goals totalled zero, compared with five conceded. Excelsior hosted Utrecht (Eredivisie) on 13 September. For Utrecht, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
Utrecht: 11th, 12 points, ten matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 4-1 home win for Utrecht on 11 April and a 1-1 draw at Telstar on 23 November 2025.
After the match
Telstar beat Utrecht 4-2 on 1 November 2026. Tyrone Owusu opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Telstar to make it 1-0. Abdelnour Soualhia added to the tally in the 25th minute for Telstar, set up by Ar'jany Martha, to make it 2-0. Angel Alarcon pulled one back in the 42nd minute for Utrecht, set up by Marius Broholm, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Telstar extended the lead through Nökkvi Þórisson in the 44th minute, set up by Tyrone Owusu, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Utrecht reduced the deficit through Yoann Cathline 46 minutes into the game, set up by Joris van Overeem, to make it 2-3. Ar'jany Martha scored the 6th goal for Telstar 59 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Nökkvi Þórisson, to make it 4-2. Dani de Wit (71') and Per Kloosterboer (73') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Utrecht slightly the stronger side, by 62 rating points over Telstar, even though it was Telstar who won this one. Telstar won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. Telstar: five substitutions. Utrecht picked up two yellow cards. Utrecht: five substitutions. Per Kloosterboer, on in the 37th minute, was booked. Angel Alarcon entered for Utrecht at 37 minutes and later scored in minute 42.