On record: 16 meetings from 2016, 20-25 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in Eredivisie. Currently 1502 against 1418 — a 58.8% / 22.8% / 18.4% split.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-1 at 6.0%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +2 and -82. Raw profiles are 1.42 and 1.31 against 1.12 and 1.58. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 45 and 45 matches. Groningen carries the largest share, 58.8%. Spread across the three results is 40.4 points. Groningen sits 36.0 points above the next most likely result. The underlying goal expectation is 3.33 for Groningen, 1.98 for Sparta. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Played and finished 2-3. Higher rating: the home side. Rounded, that is 3-1. Win-or-lose totals 77.2%; the draw takes the rest. Neither component contradicts the other: Groningen leads 1.42-1.12 forward and 1.31-1.58 back. By expected share of the points: 70.2% and 29.8%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 84 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Groningen's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 9 conceded. NEC were their latest opponents, away on 25 October: a 2-2 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 away to Excelsior on 11 October.
On 25 October, NEC faced Groningen in Eredivisie: Groningen drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Eredivisie, 18 October brought a home meeting with Ajax; Groningen lost 2-5, a return of two goals scored and five conceded. Groningen visited Excelsior on 11 October (Eredivisie) and won 5-1; their goals totalled five, compared with one conceded. Zwolle travelled to face Groningen (Eredivisie) on 18 September. For Groningen, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Groningen's result against Go Ahead on 12 September (Eredivisie), playing away from home; Groningen drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed Groningen 8th after ten matches and 15 points.
Sparta: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; eight goals scored, 15 conceded. Ajax were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 2-1 defeat.
Playing at home against Ajax (Eredivisie), Sparta finished 1-2 on 25 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 17 October: Sparta won 3-2 against Willem II at home in Eredivisie, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Go Ahead in Eredivisie, Sparta scored three and conceded three on 10 October; the away from home result was 3-3. Sparta's at home game on 19 September (Eredivisie) ended 0-4 against Heerenveen, with zero goals for and four against. On 13 September, PSV faced Sparta in Eredivisie: Sparta lost 1-4 away from home, having scored one and conceded four.
nine points in ten matches put Sparta 15th in the pre-match results-based Eredivisie standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Sparta on 31 January and a 2-0 away win for Sparta on 19 October 2025.
After the match
Sparta edged past Groningen 3-2 on 1 November 2026. Jacob Ondrejka opened the scoring inside the first minute for Groningen, set up by Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson, to make it 1-0. Cedric Hatenboer levelled it inside the first 15 minutes for Sparta, set up by Marvin Young, to make it 1-1. Milan Zonneveld put Sparta in front in the 25th minute, set up by Jens Toornstra, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Groningen drew level through Thom van Bergen in the 29th minute, set up by Hans Hateboer, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Sparta restored the lead through Andrej Kostić late on, in the 85th minute to make it 3-2. Tika de Jonge (5'), Bruno Martins Indi (36'), Lushendry Martes (61') and Cedric Hatenboer (75') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Groningen slightly the stronger side, by 84 rating points over Sparta, even though it was Sparta who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Sparta only an 18.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Groningen picked up one yellow card. Groningen: four substitutions. three yellow cards went to Sparta. Sparta: four substitutions. After coming on for Sparta in minute 71, Andrej Kostić scored in minute 85. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Sparta won after falling behind.