Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2024 the split is 2-0-2 from Como 1907's side on wins, 5-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-1 in Serie A. Today those sides rate 1699 and 1697, 2 apart, which resolves to 46.7% / 25.6% / 27.6%.
Versus the 1500 seed: +199 and +197. The rating gap itself is 2 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. On the Elo curve they expect 59.5% and 40.5% of the points. The home side is rated higher. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%. The result went the other way. Expected goals sit at 1.26 against 1.17. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Outcomes span 21.1 points. The model gives 74.3% to someone winning. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 1.40 versus 1.43 in attack and 0.60 versus 0.60 at the back. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.0%. Raw profiles are 1.40 and 0.60 against 1.43 and 0.60. Most likely single result is Como 1907 on 46.7%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Como 1907: four wins and one defeat over five games; 12 goals scored, six conceded. Frosinone were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 2-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to RB Leipzig on 10 September.
Against Frosinone in Serie A, Como 1907 scored zero and conceded two on 20 September; the away from home result was 0-2. Como 1907's at home game on 14 September (Serie A) ended 2-1 against Parma, with two goals for and one against. On 10 September, RB Leipzig faced Como 1907 in Champions League: Como 1907 won 4-1 at home, having scored four and conceded one. Serie A, 4 September brought an away meeting with Genoa; Como 1907 won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded. Como 1907 visited Napoli on 30 August (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
ten points in five matches put Como 1907 8th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
11 goals for and four against accompanied Roma's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 2-2 draw at home to Inter (19 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Lecce on 31 August.
Serie A, 19 September brought a home meeting with Inter; Roma drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Roma visited Torino on 14 September (Serie A) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Fenerbahçe hosted Roma (Champions League) on 10 September. For Roma, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Roma's result against Atalanta on 5 September (Serie A), playing at home; Roma won, with two scored to one conceded. The 31 August fixture (Serie A) paired Roma with Lecce. Roma won 4-0 away from home, netting four goals while conceding zero.
Roma: 2nd, 13 points, five matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Como 1907 on 15 March and a 1-0 home win for Roma on 15 December 2025.
After the match
Como 1907 and Roma could not be separated in a goalless draw on 11 October 2026. Donyell Malen (53') was sent off. Assane Diao (45'), Marten de Roon (46'), Manu Koné (57'), Matias Soule (62') and Martin Baturina (90') were booked. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Serie A, the 2026/27 Serie A and the 2026/27 Champions League. Como 1907 picked up two yellow cards. Como 1907: five substitutions. Martin Baturina, on in the 78th minute, was booked. three yellow cards and one red card went to Roma. Roma: five substitutions. Matias Soule was booked following entry for Roma in the 46th minute. Como 1907 conceded no goals. Roma conceded no goals.