The head-to-head counts 6 recorded meetings since 2022: 4 to Lazio, 0 to Monza, 2 drawn, 12-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 5-1 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1568 and 1374, giving 72.2% / 18.9% / 8.9%.
72.2% goes to Lazio, the model's lean. The match finished 3-1. On expected goals the model has it 2.12 against 0.52. Point estimate: 2-0. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +68 and -126. Elo expected shares: 81.6% and 18.4%. The ratings draw on 42 and 132 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Raw profiles are 0.95 and 0.80 against 0.49 and 1.50. Higher rating: the home side. A decisive result carries 81.1% against 18.9% for the draw. The two ratings differ by 194 points. Lazio is ahead on each half — 0.95 to 0.49 in attack, 0.80 to 1.50 in defence. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 70.1% / 19.6% / 10.3%. That call matched the result. 2-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.0%. Lazio leads the distribution by 53.3 points over the draw. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Lazio: four wins and one draw over five games; eight goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-0 win away to Venezia FC on 19 September.
Lazio visited Venezia FC on 19 September (Serie A) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Milan travelled to face Lazio (Serie A) on 12 September. For Lazio, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Lazio's result against Udinese on 7 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Lazio won, with two scored to one conceded. The 30 August fixture (Serie A) paired Lazio with Genoa. Lazio won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Bologna (Serie A), Lazio finished 1-0 on 24 August. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
13 points in five matches put Lazio 3rd in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Monza: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, eight conceded. Sassuolo were their latest opponents, at home on 18 September: a 2-1 win.
Monza hosted Sassuolo on 18 September (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Lecce hosted Monza (Serie A) on 13 September. For Monza, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 1-1 was Monza's result against Parma on 6 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Monza drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 1 September fixture (Coppa Italia) paired Monza with Torino. Monza won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Udinese (Serie A), Monza finished 2-3 on 29 August. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
four points in five matches put Monza 15th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 5-1 home win for Lazio on 9 February 2025 and a 1-0 away win for Lazio on 10 November 2024.
After the match
Lazio beat Monza 3-1 on 11 October 2026. Nuno Tavares opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Lazio, set up by Tijjani Noslin, to make it 1-0. Gustav Isaksen added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Lazio, set up by Tijjani Noslin, to make it 2-0. Saba Goglichidze pulled one back 46 minutes into the game for Monza, set up by Dany Mota Carvalho, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Lazio extended the lead through Andrea Pinamonti late on, in the 88th minute, set up by Alfonso Pedraza, to make it 3-1. Lorenzo Lucchesi (35') was sent off. Andrea Carboni (13'), Danilho Doekhi (45'), Oliver Nielsen (55'), Diogo Leite (68') and Ivan Juric (79') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lazio 194 points stronger than Monza. 72.2% is Lazio's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Lazio are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Coppa Italia, the 2025/26 Serie A, the 2026/27 Coppa Italia and the 2026/27 Serie A. Lazio picked up three yellow cards. Lazio: five substitutions. Diogo Leite, on in the 53rd minute, was booked. Alfonso Pedraza entered for Lazio at 75 minutes and later provided an assist. After coming on for Lazio in minute 75, Andrea Pinamonti scored in minute 88. Monza picked up two yellow cards and one red card. Monza: five substitutions. Saba Goglichidze scored in minute 46 following entry for Monza in the 36th minute. Dany Mota Carvalho, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist.