On record: 14 meetings from 2010, 11-24 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in Serie A. Today those sides rate 1365 and 1475, 110 apart, which resolves to 30.4% / 26.4% / 43.1%.
Outcomes span 16.7 points. The away side is rated higher. Logged in advance of kickoff — 34.3% / 27.5% / 38.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Neither figure is thin: 42 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 110 points. Someone wins 73.5% of the time by this model. Elo expected shares: 43.6% and 56.4%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -135 and -25. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 16.6%. Bologna sits 12.7 points above the next most likely result. In absolute terms: Lecce 0.55/1.14, Bologna 0.85/0.93 on attack and defence. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. It ended 1-2. On expected goals the model has it 0.76 against 1.30. Top of the distribution: Bologna, 43.1%. Bologna is ahead on each half — 0.85 to 0.55 in attack, 0.93 to 1.14 in defence.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Lecce's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 10 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 3-0 defeat away to Milan on 20 September.
Against Milan in Serie A, Lecce scored zero and conceded three on 20 September; the away from home result was 0-3. Lecce's at home game on 13 September (Serie A) ended 3-2 against Monza, with three goals for and two against. On 7 September, Cagliari faced Lecce in Serie A: Lecce lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Serie A, 31 August brought a home meeting with Roma; Lecce lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Lecce visited Venezia FC on 23 August (Serie A) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Lecce 12th after five matches and six points.
Bologna's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 6 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, with no wins. Torino were their latest opponents, at home on 19 September: a 1-1 draw.
1-1 was Bologna's result against Torino on 19 September (Serie A), playing at home; Bologna drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 13 September fixture (Serie A) paired Bologna with Napoli. Bologna lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Sassuolo (Serie A), Bologna finished 2-2 on 6 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 31 August: Bologna lost 0-1 against Atalanta away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Lazio in Serie A, Bologna scored zero and conceded one on 24 August; the at home result was 0-1.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Bologna 19th after five matches and two points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 home win for Bologna on 12 April and a 2-2 draw at Lecce on 28 September 2025.
After the match
Bologna edged past Lecce 2-1 on 11 October 2026. Riccardo Orsolini opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Bologna, set up by Nicolò Cambiaghi, to make it 1-0. Amar Ahmed Fatah levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Lecce, set up by Danilo Veiga, to make it 1-1. Bologna regained the lead through Jay Enem 75 minutes into the game, set up by Nicolò Cambiaghi, to make it 2-1. Ivan Ilić (10'), Paco Esteban (31'), Torbjørn Heggem (44'), Youssef Maleh (45') and Oussama El Azzouzi (90') were booked. Lecce: three yellow cards. Lecce made five changes. The card tally for Bologna was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Bologna. Oussama El Azzouzi was booked following entry for Bologna in the 62nd minute. Jay Enem, on in the 62nd minute, scored in minute 75.