Prior record: 8-2-4 across 14 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in Serie A. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1453 and 1442 — 11 points — for a 48.0% / 25.4% / 26.6% split.
In absolute terms: Udinese 0.94/1.05, Lecce 0.77/1.04 on attack and defence. Each side owns one half of the argument — Udinese the scoring rate at 0.94, Lecce the conceding rate at 1.04. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.4%. Udinese sits 21.4 points above the next most likely result. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.46 and 1.09. A decisive result carries 74.6% against 25.4% for the draw. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Played and finished 0-3. The higher rating belongs to the home side. With 47 and 46 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -47 and -58. The model's preferred outcome is Udinese at 48.0%. Most and least likely outcomes are 22.6 points apart. Distance between the ratings: 11 points, narrow on this scale.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Udinese came into the game with one win and four defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 11. On 12 October, Udinese recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Torino.
The 12 October fixture (Serie A) paired Udinese with Torino. Udinese lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Cagliari (Serie A), Udinese finished 0-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 14 September: Udinese lost 3-5 against Inter away from home in Serie A, scoring three goals and allowing five. Against Lazio in Serie A, Udinese scored one and conceded two on 7 September; the at home result was 1-2. Udinese's at home game on 2 September (Coppa Italia) ended 2-1 against Venezia FC, with two goals for and one against.
Udinese stood 15th in the results-based Serie A table before kickoff, with four points from six matches.
Lecce's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 12 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 2-1 defeat at home to Bologna on 11 October.
Playing at home against Bologna (Serie A), Lecce finished 1-2 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 September: Lecce lost 0-3 against Milan away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing three. Against Monza in Serie A, Lecce scored three and conceded two on 13 September; the at home result was 3-2. Lecce's away from home game on 7 September (Serie A) ended 0-1 against Cagliari, with zero goals for and one against. On 31 August, Roma faced Lecce in Serie A: Lecce lost 0-4 at home, having scored zero and conceded four.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Lecce 13th after six matches and six points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Lecce on 8 February and a 3-2 home win for Udinese on 25 October 2025.
After the match
Lecce comfortably beat Udinese 3-0 on 18 October 2026. Kialonda Gaspar opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Lecce, set up by Antonino Gallo, to make it 1-0. Konan N'Dri added to the tally in the 33rd minute for Lecce, set up by Tiago Gabriel, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Lecce extended the lead through Jamil Siebert late on, in the 86th minute to make it 3-0. Hassane Kamara (43') was booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Udinese just 11 rating points ahead of Lecce, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Lecce only a 26.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Udinese's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2025/26 Serie A, the 2026/27 Coppa Italia and the 2026/27 Serie A. Udinese picked up one yellow card. Udinese: five substitutions. Lecce made five changes. Jamil Siebert entered for Lecce at 82 minutes and later scored in minute 86. Lecce finished with a clean sheet.