On record: 32 meetings from 2010, 37-59 on aggregate, 8 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-3 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1461 and 1711, giving 14.9% / 21.5% / 63.6%.
The higher-rated side expects 74.4% of the points; the other side 25.6%. With 45 and 57 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The leading outcome clears the second by 42.1 points. In absolute terms: Bologna 0.84/1.00, Inter 1.84/1.01 on attack and defence. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. 78.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -39 and +211. The model's preferred outcome is Inter at 63.6%. Higher rating: the away side. Rating separation comes to 250 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.27 and 2.49. One half each — Inter in front on 1.84, Bologna behind on 1.00. Most and least likely outcomes are 48.7 points apart. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 9.2%. Final score: 1-3.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and six against accompanied Bologna's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 2-1 win away to Lecce (11 October) was their most recent result.
Bologna's away from home game on 11 October (Serie A) ended 2-1 against Lecce, with two goals for and one against. On 19 September, Torino faced Bologna in Serie A: Bologna drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Serie A, 13 September brought an away meeting with Napoli; Bologna lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Bologna hosted Sassuolo on 6 September (Serie A) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Atalanta hosted Bologna (Serie A) on 31 August. For Bologna, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
Bologna stood 14th in the results-based Serie A table before kickoff, with five points from six matches.
Inter's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 14 scored and 11 conceded. Club Brugge were their latest opponents, at home on 13 October: a 4-3 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Parma on 10 October.
Against Club Brugge in Champions League, Inter scored three and conceded four on 13 October; the at home result was 3-4. Inter's at home game on 10 October (Serie A) ended 3-0 against Parma, with three goals for and zero against. On 19 September, Roma faced Inter in Serie A: Inter drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Serie A, 14 September brought a home meeting with Udinese; Inter won 5-3, a return of five goals scored and three conceded. Inter visited Real Madrid on 8 September (Champions League) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
16 points in six matches put Inter 1st in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-3 draw at Bologna on 23 May and a 3-1 home win for Inter on 4 January.
After the match
Inter beat Bologna 3-1 on 17 October 2026. Tommaso Pobega opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Bologna, set up by Juan Miranda, to make it 1-0. Marcus Thuram-Ulien levelled it in the 44th minute for Inter, set up by Nicolò Barella, to make it 1-1. Carlos Augusto Lobaton put Inter in front 69 minutes into the game, set up by Piotr Zieliński, to make it 2-1. Ange-Yoan Bonny added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Inter, set up by Carlos Augusto Lobaton, to make it 3-1. 7 players were booked, among them Arthur Theate (34'), Francesco Esposito (35'), Tommaso Pobega (57'), Marcus Thuram-Ulien (61'), Juan Miranda (71') and Federico Bernardeschi (72'). The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Inter 250 points stronger than Bologna. Inter: 63.6% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Bologna picked up four yellow cards. Bologna: four substitutions. Inter picked up three yellow cards. Inter: five substitutions. After coming on for Inter in minute 58, Ange-Yoan Bonny scored in minute 83. Carlos Augusto Lobaton scored in minute 69 and provided an assist and was booked following entry for Inter in the 69th minute. The scoring record shows one lead change. Inter won after falling behind.