Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 1-2-1 from Genoa's side on wins, 3-3 on goals. The last was 2025, 2-0 in Serie A. The present numbers are 1493 against 1384, and the model turns that into 62.2% / 21.9% / 15.9%.
Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -7 and -116. It ended 1-0. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Neither component contradicts the other: Genoa leads 0.88-0.64 forward and 0.88-1.28 back. Elo expected shares: 73.1% and 26.9%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 62.2% goes to Genoa, the model's lean. A 40.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Outcomes span 46.3 points. Logged in advance of kickoff — 50.7% / 24.8% / 24.6%. That call matched the result. xG: 1.66 to 0.76. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. A 109-point spread sits between the two figures. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 50 and 103 matches. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A decisive result carries 78.1% against 21.9% for the draw. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 0.88 against 0.64 and 1.28.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Genoa came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding six. On 17 October, Genoa recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Roma.
17 October: Genoa lost 0-2 against Roma away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Fiorentina in Serie A, Genoa scored two and conceded one on 10 October; the at home result was 2-1. Genoa's away from home game on 20 September (Serie A) ended 1-2 against Parma, with one goal for and two against. On 15 September, Sudtirol faced Genoa in Coppa Italia: Genoa won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Serie A, 12 September brought a home meeting with Frosinone; Genoa drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
Genoa: 17th, four points, seven matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Venezia FC's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 12 conceded. Napoli were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 1-0 win.
1-0 was Venezia FC's result against Napoli on 17 October (Serie A), playing at home; Venezia FC won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 12 October fixture (Serie A) paired Venezia FC with Atalanta. Venezia FC lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Lazio (Serie A), Venezia FC finished 0-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 11 September: Venezia FC lost 2-4 against Fiorentina at home in Serie A, scoring two goals and allowing four. Against Frosinone in Serie A, Venezia FC scored two and conceded three on 6 September; the away from home result was 2-3.
three points in seven matches put Venezia FC 20th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 home win for Genoa on 17 February 2025 and a 2-0 home win for Venezia FC on 21 September 2024.
After the match
Genoa edged past Venezia FC 1-0 on 25 October 2026. Mikael Egill Ellertsson opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Genoa, set up by Stephan El Shaarawy, to make it 1-0. Sebastian Otoa (55') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Genoa 109 points stronger than Venezia FC. Genoa won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 62.2%. one yellow card went to Genoa. The substitution total for Genoa was five. Venezia FC made four changes. Genoa conceded no goals.