Prior record: 3-3-1 across 7 since 2022. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Coppa Italia. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1486 and 1425 — 61 points — for a 55.6% / 23.6% / 20.8% split.
The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.02, 0.93, 1.38. Most and least likely outcomes are 34.8 points apart. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 52.5% / 24.3% / 23.2%. It landed. By expected share of the points: 67.4% and 32.6%. Expected goals sit at 2.10 against 1.28. Torino holds both halves of the profile — 1.02 against 0.93 for scoring, 1.02 against 1.38 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Torino carries the largest share, 55.6%. The rating gap itself is 61 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. The model gives 76.4% to someone winning. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -14 and -75. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The tie closed out 3-2. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.6%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Torino came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding five. On 19 October, Torino recorded a 3-0 win visiting Parma.
Parma hosted Torino (Serie A) on 19 October. For Torino, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was Torino's result against Udinese on 12 October (Serie A), playing at home; Torino won, with two scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Serie A) paired Torino with Bologna. Torino drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Roma (Serie A), Torino finished 0-2 on 14 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 5 September: Torino won 2-1 against Fiorentina away from home in Serie A, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Torino stood 10th in the results-based Serie A table before kickoff, with ten points from seven matches.
Monza's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 win at home to Cagliari on 19 October.
On 19 October, Cagliari faced Monza in Serie A: Monza won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero. Serie A, 11 October brought an away meeting with Lazio; Monza lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Monza hosted Sassuolo on 18 September (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Lecce hosted Monza (Serie A) on 13 September. For Monza, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 1-1 was Monza's result against Parma on 6 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Monza drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Monza 14th after seven matches and seven points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Monza on 1 September and a 2-0 away win for Torino on 2 March 2025.
After the match
Torino edged past Monza 3-2 on 23 October 2026. Kian Fitz-Jim opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Torino, set up by Giovanni Simeone, to make it 1-0. Gustavo Varela levelled it 47 minutes into the game for Monza to make it 1-1. Torino regained the lead through Rafik Belghali 61 minutes into the game, set up by Gvidas Gineitis, to make it 2-1. Nikola Vlašić added to the tally 72 minutes into the game for Torino to make it 3-1. Nathan Patterson (an own goal) pulled one back in the 94th minute for Monza to make it 2-3. Ardian Ismajli (34') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Torino are 61 points stronger than Monza. Torino's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 55.6% for a win in this pairing. Torino are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Coppa Italia and the 2026/27 Serie A. Torino picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Torino was five. Gvidas Gineitis, on in the 51st minute, provided an assist. The substitution total for Monza was five.