14 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 8-23. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in Serie A. Against that, current ratings read 1410 and 1568, a 158-point margin, and the model splits the tie 24.6% / 24.8% / 50.7%.
Expected goals 0.86-1.71. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -90 and +68. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Juventus is ahead on each half — 1.03 to 0.72 in attack, 0.80 to 1.23 in defence. Juventus sits 25.9 points above the next most likely result. The forecast we stored before the match was 22.8% / 24.2% / 53.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. A 26.1-point range top to bottom. Attack/defence pairs: 0.72/1.23 and 1.03/0.80. Both figures rest on decent samples, 48 and 57 matches. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 13.1%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Rating separation comes to 158 points. The model's preferred outcome is Juventus at 50.7%. Someone wins 75.3% of the time by this model. Result on the day: 0-2. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Lecce came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding eight. A 3-0 win away to Udinese (18 October) was their most recent result.
Udinese hosted Lecce (Serie A) on 18 October. For Lecce, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was Lecce's result against Bologna on 11 October (Serie A), playing at home; Lecce lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Serie A) paired Lecce with Milan. Lecce lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Monza (Serie A), Lecce finished 3-2 on 13 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 7 September: Lecce lost 0-1 against Cagliari away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Lecce: 12th, nine points, seven matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Juventus came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding eight. On 18 October, Juventus recorded a 3-0 defeat hosting Lazio.
Juventus's at home game on 18 October (Serie A) ended 0-3 against Lazio, with zero goals for and three against. On 11 October, Cagliari faced Juventus in Serie A: Juventus drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Serie A, 20 September brought a home meeting with Atalanta; Juventus won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Juventus visited Sassuolo on 13 September (Serie A) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Milan travelled to face Juventus (Serie A) on 6 September. For Juventus, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Juventus: 10th, 11 points, seven matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 away win for Juventus on 9 May and a 1-1 draw at Juventus on 3 January.
After the match
Juventus beat Lecce 2-0 on 25 October 2026. Weston McKennie opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Juventus, set up by Douglas Luiz, to make it 1-0. Douglas Luiz added to the tally in the 41st minute for Juventus, set up by Federico Gatti, to make it 2-0. Kialonda Gaspar (90') was sent off. Kialonda Gaspar (76') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Juventus 158 points stronger than Lecce. one yellow card and one red card went to Lecce. The substitution total for Lecce was five. The substitution total for Juventus was four. Juventus conceded no goals.