On file: 21 previous meetings dating to 2010, 36-17 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Serie A. Today those sides rate 1632 and 1373, 259 apart, which resolves to 78.3% / 16.7% / 5.1%.
Ratings sit 259 apart. Lazio is ahead on each half — 1.28 to 0.54 in attack, 0.81 to 1.01 in defence. In absolute terms: Lazio 1.28/0.81, Parma 0.54/1.01 on attack and defence. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 1-0. A decisive result carries 83.4% against 16.7% for the draw. On expected goals the model has it 1.93 against 0.59. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Lazio carries the largest share, 78.3%. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 15.5%, with 2-0 behind it at 15.0%. Higher rating: the home side. It ended 2-1. Logged in advance of kickoff — 67.4% / 20.5% / 12.2%. It landed. A 61.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Most and least likely outcomes are 73.2 points apart. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +132 and -127. Lazio's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 86.6%. Behind them are 49 and 49 rated matches.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Lazio: four wins and one draw over five games; 12 goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-0 win away to Juventus on 18 October.
Lazio visited Juventus on 18 October (Serie A) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Monza travelled to face Lazio (Serie A) on 11 October. For Lazio, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 2-0 was Lazio's result against Venezia FC on 19 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Lazio won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 12 September fixture (Serie A) paired Lazio with Milan. Lazio drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Udinese (Serie A), Lazio finished 2-1 on 7 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
19 points in seven matches put Lazio 2nd in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Parma's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 10 conceded. Torino were their latest opponents, at home on 19 October: a 3-0 defeat.
On 19 October, Torino faced Parma in Serie A: Parma lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three. Serie A, 10 October brought an away meeting with Inter; Parma lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Parma hosted Genoa on 20 September (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Como 1907 hosted Parma (Serie A) on 14 September. For Parma, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Parma's result against Monza on 6 September (Serie A), playing at home; Parma drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Parma 19th after seven matches and four points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Lazio on 4 April and a 1-0 away win for Lazio on 13 December 2025.
After the match
Lazio edged past Parma 2-1 on 24 October 2026. Kenneth Taylor opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Lazio to make it 1-0. Diego Carlos (an own goal) added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Lazio to make it 2-0. Simone Lontani pulled one back in the 95th minute for Parma, set up by Giovanni Fabbian, to make it 1-2. Oliver Nielsen (30') and Vincent Sierro (38') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Lazio 259 points stronger than Parma. Every goal came after the interval. 78.3% is Lazio's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Lazio's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Serie A. Lazio picked up one yellow card. Lazio: four substitutions. one yellow card went to Parma. The substitution total for Parma was four. After coming on for Parma in minute 63, Simone Lontani scored in minute 95. Giovanni Fabbian provided an assist following entry for Parma in the 78th minute.