On record: 32 meetings from 2010, 46-34 on aggregate, 8 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1590 and 1708, giving 29.4% / 26.2% / 44.4%.
118 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. A 15.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Played and finished 3-3. Top of the distribution: Roma, 44.4%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 42.4% to 57.6%. On expected goals the model has it 1.63 against 2.34. The four component numbers read 1.30, 0.97, 1.78, 0.84. Spread across the three results is 18.2 points. The away side is rated higher. Versus the 1500 seed: +90 and +208. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Neither component contradicts the other: Roma leads 1.78-1.30 forward and 0.84-0.97 back. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.4%. 73.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. With 58 and 51 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The forecast we stored before the match was 27.7% / 25.7% / 46.6%. That one did not come off. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Napoli: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 4-3 win at home to Bodø/Glimt on 20 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Frosinone on 10 October.
Napoli hosted Bodø/Glimt on 20 October (Champions League) and won 4-3; their goals totalled four, compared with three conceded. Venezia FC hosted Napoli (Serie A) on 17 October. For Napoli, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Napoli's result against Villarreal on 13 October (Champions League), playing away from home; Napoli lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Serie A) paired Napoli with Frosinone. Napoli won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Fiorentina (Serie A), Napoli finished 1-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Napoli 10th after seven matches and ten points.
Roma: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; 11 goals scored, six conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 4-0 win at home to Sl. Bratislava on 20 October.
4-0 was Roma's result against Sl. Bratislava on 20 October (Champions League), playing at home; Roma won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 17 October fixture (Serie A) paired Roma with Genoa. Roma won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Real Madrid (Champions League), Roma finished 3-4 on 14 October. Their score comprised three goals, against four from the opposition. 11 October: Roma drew 0-0 against Como 1907 away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Inter in Serie A, Roma scored two and conceded two on 19 September; the at home result was 2-2.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Roma 3rd after seven matches and 17 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Napoli on 15 February and a 1-0 away win for Napoli on 30 November 2025.
After the match
Napoli and Roma drew 3-3 on 24 October 2026. André Zambo Anguissa opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Napoli to make it 1-0. Scott McTominay added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Napoli, set up by Matteo Politano, to make it 2-0. Matias Soule pulled one back 69 minutes into the game for Roma, set up by Donyell Malen, to make it 1-2. Leonardo Balerdi levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Roma, set up by Santiago Castro, to make it 2-2. Napoli regained the lead through Scott McTominay late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Mathías Olivera, to make it 3-2. With the 6th goal, Roma drew level through Leonardo Balerdi late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Wesley, to make it 3-3. Massimiliano Allegri (90') was sent off. Rafa Marin (4'), Bryan Cristante (30'), Devyne Rensch (45'), Leonardo Balerdi (61') and Marten de Roon (86') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Champions League and the 2026/27 Serie A. The card tally for Napoli was one yellow card and one red card. Napoli made five changes. Roma: four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Roma. Leonardo Balerdi scored two times in minutes 74, 89 and was booked following entry for Roma in the 58th minute. Santiago Castro, on in the 58th minute, provided an assist.