Prior record: 20-7-8 across 35 since 2011. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in Serie A. Today those sides rate 1702 and 1456, 246 apart, which resolves to 77.1% / 17.1% / 5.8%.
Inter holds both halves of the profile — 1.68 against 1.03 for scoring, 0.96 against 1.15 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Played and finished 2-1. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. By expected share of the points: 85.7% and 14.3%. Most likely single result is Inter on 77.1%. Point estimate: 2-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +202 and -44. The three results cover 71.3 points. Both figures rest on decent samples, 61 and 49 matches. Attack/defence pairs: 1.68/0.96 and 1.03/1.15. A decisive result carries 82.9% against 17.1% for the draw. Logged in advance of kickoff — 74.8% / 18.0% / 7.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Expected goals sit at 2.85 against 1.35. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. The home side is rated higher. 246 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. First to second is a 60.0-point step, Inter over the draw.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and seven against accompanied Inter's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 1-0 win at home to Shaktar (21 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Parma on 10 October.
Shaktar travelled to face Inter (Champions League) on 21 October. For Inter, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Inter's result against Bologna on 17 October (Serie A), playing away from home; Inter won, with three scored to one conceded. The 13 October fixture (Champions League) paired Inter with Club Brugge. Inter lost 3-4 at home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Parma (Serie A), Inter finished 3-0 on 10 October. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 19 September: Inter drew 2-2 against Roma away from home in Serie A, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Inter: 2nd, 19 points, seven matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Fiorentina: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, eight conceded. Como 1907 were their latest opponents, at home on 18 October: a 3-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to AC Pisa on 15 September.
On 18 October, Como 1907 faced Fiorentina in Serie A: Fiorentina lost 1-3 at home, having scored one and conceded three. Serie A, 10 October brought an away meeting with Genoa; Fiorentina lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Fiorentina hosted Napoli on 20 September (Serie A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. AC Pisa travelled to face Fiorentina (Coppa Italia) on 15 September. For Fiorentina, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 4-2 was Fiorentina's result against Venezia FC on 11 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Fiorentina won, with four scored to two conceded.
four points in seven matches put Fiorentina 18th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina on 22 March and a 3-0 home win for Inter on 29 October 2025.
After the match
Inter edged past Fiorentina 2-1 on 25 October 2026. Álex Jiménez opened the scoring 65 minutes into the game for Fiorentina, set up by Nicolò Fagioli, to make it 1-0. Marcus Thuram-Ulien levelled it in the 91st minute for Inter, set up by Andy Diouf, to make it 1-1. Piotr Zieliński put Inter in front from the penalty spot in the 97th minute to make it 2-1. Viery (70') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Inter 246 points stronger than Fiorentina. Every goal came after the interval. Inter's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 77.1% for a win in this pairing. five changes were recorded for Inter. Piotr Zieliński scored in minute 97 following entry for Inter in the 78th minute. one yellow card went to Fiorentina. Fiorentina: five substitutions. Viery was booked following entry for Fiorentina in the 51st minute. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. After trailing, Inter secured the win.