Prior record: 4-1-1 across 6 since 2015. Most recent 2024, 5-0 in Serie A. Against that, current ratings read 1527 and 1601, a 74-point margin, and the model splits the tie 34.8% / 27.7% / 37.5%.
Point estimate: 1-2. The higher-rated side expects 51.3% of the points; the other side 48.7%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 43.1% / 26.4% / 30.4%. The match did not follow it. The underlying goal expectation is 1.97 for Atalanta, 2.17 for Frosinone. The three outcomes sit within 9.8 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Neither component contradicts the other: Frosinone leads 1.35-1.16 forward and 1.15-1.19 back. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The top two outcomes are within 2.7 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Most likely single result is Frosinone on 37.5%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 59 and 144 matches. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 7.4% — not a strong call. It ended 4-4. 72.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Atalanta: one win and four defeats over five games; seven goals scored, ten conceded. Latest: a 3-2 defeat away to Milan on 18 October.
Atalanta visited Milan on 18 October (Serie A) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Venezia FC travelled to face Atalanta (Serie A) on 12 October. For Atalanta, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 0-2 was Atalanta's result against Juventus on 20 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Atalanta lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 12 September fixture (Serie A) paired Atalanta with Cagliari. Atalanta lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Roma (Serie A), Atalanta finished 1-2 on 5 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Atalanta 11th after seven matches and nine points.
Frosinone's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 8 conceded. Sassuolo were their latest opponents, at home on 16 October: a 4-2 win.
Against Sassuolo in Serie A, Frosinone scored four and conceded two on 16 October; the at home result was 4-2. Frosinone's away from home game on 10 October (Serie A) ended 0-3 against Napoli, with zero goals for and three against. On 20 September, Como 1907 faced Frosinone in Serie A: Frosinone won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Serie A, 12 September brought an away meeting with Genoa; Frosinone drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Frosinone hosted Venezia FC on 6 September (Serie A) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded.
13 points in seven matches put Frosinone 6th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 5-0 home win for Atalanta on 15 January 2024 and a 2-1 home win for Frosinone on 26 August 2023.
After the match
Atalanta and Frosinone drew 4-4 on 25 October 2026. Romano Schmid opened the scoring inside the first minute for Frosinone to make it 1-0. Nikola Krstović levelled it inside the first 14 minutes for Atalanta, set up by Charles De Ketelaere, to make it 1-1. Frosinone regained the lead through Romano Schmid in the 17th minute, set up by Farés Ghedjemis, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Atalanta drew level through Éderson from the penalty spot in the 33rd minute to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Atalanta took the lead through Nikola Krstović in the 45th minute, set up by Davide Zappacosta, to make it 3-2. Giacomo Calò scored the 6th goal for Frosinone 48 minutes into the game as they drew level, set up by Farés Ghedjemis, to make it 3-3. Eljif Elmas scored the 7th goal for Atalanta 50 minutes into the game as they restored the lead, set up by Nikola Krstović, to make it 4-3. Frosinone drew level late on, in the 82nd minute; the match's 8th goal came through Aleksa Terzić, set up by Farés Ghedjemis, to make it 4-4. Gabriele Bracaglia (7'), Giorgi Kvernadze (28'), Éderson (69'), Aleksa Terzić (85') and Antonio Raimondo (90') were booked. Frosinone are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Serie A and the 2026/27 Coppa Italia. one yellow card went to Atalanta. Atalanta: five substitutions. Frosinone: four yellow cards. Frosinone made five changes. Aleksa Terzić scored in minute 82 and was booked following entry for Frosinone in the 46th minute. The scoring record shows one lead change.