On file: 24 previous meetings dating to 2013, 28-45 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in Serie A. The present numbers are 1447 against 1632, and the model turns that into 21.5% / 23.8% / 54.8%.
Higher rating: the away side. The higher-rated side expects 66.6% of the points; the other side 33.4%. The rating gap itself is 185 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Neither component contradicts the other: Lazio leads 1.28-1.04 forward and 0.81-1.33 back. The forecast we stored before the match was 34.1% / 27.5% / 38.4%. That call matched the result. Its rounded call is 1-2. Win-or-lose totals 76.3%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals 1.25-2.30. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.5%. The four component numbers read 1.04, 1.33, 1.28, 0.81. Lazio holds a 31.0-point edge on the next outcome. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -53 and +132. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 49 and 49 rated matches respectively. Most and least likely outcomes are 33.3 points apart. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Sassuolo: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; seven goals scored, 11 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Como 1907 on 24 October.
0-2 was Sassuolo's result against Como 1907 on 24 October (Serie A), playing away from home; Sassuolo lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 16 October fixture (Serie A) paired Sassuolo with Frosinone. Sassuolo lost 2-4 away from home, netting two goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Milan (Serie A), Sassuolo finished 1-1 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 18 September: Sassuolo lost 1-2 against Monza away from home in Serie A, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Juventus in Serie A, Sassuolo scored three and conceded two on 13 September; the at home result was 3-2.
eight points in eight matches put Sassuolo 14th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Lazio's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 12 scored and 4 conceded, with no defeats. Parma were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 2-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Juventus on 18 October.
Lazio hosted Parma on 24 October (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Juventus hosted Lazio (Serie A) on 18 October. For Lazio, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Lazio's result against Monza on 11 October (Serie A), playing at home; Lazio won, with three scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Serie A) paired Lazio with Venezia FC. Lazio won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Milan (Serie A), Lazio finished 2-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Lazio 2nd after eight matches and 22 points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Lazio on 9 March and a 1-0 home win for Sassuolo on 14 September 2025.
After the match
Lazio overwhelmed Sassuolo 6-2 on 27 October 2026. Kenneth Taylor opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Lazio to make it 1-0. Kristian Thorstvedt levelled it inside the first 7 minutes for Sassuolo, set up by Josh Doig, to make it 1-1. Lazio regained the lead through Gustav Isaksen inside the first 13 minutes, set up by Mattia Zaccagni, to make it 2-1. Romano Floriani added to the tally in the 16th minute for Lazio, set up by Kenneth Taylor, to make it 3-1. Sebastiano Esposito pulled one back in the 43rd minute for Sassuolo, set up by Simone Cinquegrano, to make it 2-3. With the 6th goal, Lazio extended the lead through Mattia Zaccagni 46 minutes into the game, set up by Gustav Isaksen, to make it 4-2. Tijjani Noslin scored the 7th goal for Lazio 55 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Mattia Zaccagni, to make it 5-2. Lazio extended the lead 65 minutes into the game; the match's 8th goal came through Tijjani Noslin, set up by Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, to make it 6-2. Kristian Thorstvedt (31') was sent off. Kenneth Taylor (28') and Domenico Berardi (54') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lazio 185 points stronger than Sassuolo. On current ratings the model puts Lazio at around 2.3 gols in this pairing; they scored 6 here. Lazio's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Serie A. Sassuolo picked up one yellow card and one red card. The substitution total for Sassuolo was five. one yellow card went to Lazio. The substitution total for Lazio was five. After coming on for Lazio in minute 46, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru provided an assist.