On file: 28 previous meetings dating to 2010, 53-33 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-0 in Serie A. The present numbers are 1708 against 1419, and the model turns that into 80.6% / 15.6% / 3.7%.
Roma carries the largest share, 80.6%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +208 and -81. Attack/defence pairs: 1.78/0.84 and 0.74/1.12. Logged in advance of kickoff — 70.7% / 19.4% / 9.9%. It landed. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Neither component contradicts the other: Roma leads 1.78-0.74 forward and 0.84-1.12 back. With 51 and 50 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. No scoreline stands out; 2-0 only leads on 9.8%. Roma holds a 65.0-point edge on the next outcome. Higher rating: the home side. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between best and worst outcome there is 76.9 points of daylight. A decisive result carries 84.3% against 15.6% for the draw. Expected shares 88.5% against 11.5% on Elo. The xG line reads 2.96 to 0.84. The tie closed out 4-2.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Roma: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; 12 goals scored, seven conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 3-3 draw away to Napoli on 24 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Sl. Bratislava on 20 October.
Roma visited Napoli on 24 October (Serie A) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded. Sl. Bratislava travelled to face Roma (Champions League) on 20 October. For Roma, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Roma's result against Genoa on 17 October (Serie A), playing at home; Roma won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 14 October fixture (Champions League) paired Roma with Real Madrid. Roma lost 3-4 at home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Como 1907 (Serie A), Roma finished 0-0 on 11 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Roma 3rd after eight matches and 18 points.
Cagliari: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; four goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat at home to Bologna on 24 October.
Playing at home against Bologna (Serie A), Cagliari finished 0-2 on 24 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 19 October: Cagliari lost 0-4 against Monza away from home in Serie A, scoring zero goals and allowing four. Against Juventus in Serie A, Cagliari scored one and conceded one on 11 October; the at home result was 1-1. Cagliari's away from home game on 19 September (Serie A) ended 1-0 against Udinese, with one goal for and zero against. On 12 September, Atalanta faced Cagliari in Serie A: Cagliari won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Cagliari 9th after eight matches and 13 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 home win for Roma on 9 February and a 1-0 home win for Cagliari on 7 December 2025.
After the match
Roma beat Cagliari 4-2 on 27 October 2026. M'Bala Nzola opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 10 minutes for Cagliari to make it 1-0. Emanuele Lulli levelled it inside the first 15 minutes for Roma, set up by Nahuel Molina, to make it 1-1. Niccolo Pisilli put Roma in front in the 21st minute, set up by Emanuele Lulli, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Cagliari drew level through Daniel Maldini late on, in the 81st minute, set up by Adam Obert, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Roma restored the lead through Rodrigo Mora late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Daniele Ghilardi, to make it 3-2. Donyell Malen added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for Roma to make it 4-2. Juan Martín Rodriguez (90') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Roma 289 points stronger than Cagliari. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. Roma won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 80.6%. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Champions League and the 2026/27 Serie A. Cagliari's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Serie A and the 2026/27 Coppa Italia. five changes were recorded for Roma. Rodrigo Mora scored in minute 85 following entry for Roma in the 56th minute. Donyell Malen, on in the 56th minute, scored in minute 87. Daniele Ghilardi entered for Roma at 82 minutes and later provided an assist. Cagliari picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Cagliari was five. Daniel Maldini entered for Cagliari at 76 minutes and later scored in minute 81. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Roma secured the win.