Prior record: 9-3-8 across 20 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in Serie A. Today those sides rate 1373 and 1421, 48 apart, which resolves to 38.7% / 27.4% / 33.8%.
As a single number the model says 0-1. A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.4% for the draw. The forecast we stored before the match was 39.4% / 27.3% / 33.4%. The result went the other way. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -127 and -79. Expected goals sit at 0.94 against 1.20. Attack/defence pairs: 0.54/1.01 and 0.87/1.18. Final score: 0-0. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 52.4% to 47.6%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 49 and 50 rated matches respectively. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 14.1%. The two halves pull apart — Udinese better going forward at 0.87, Parma tighter at the back on 1.01. A 11.3-point range covers every outcome here. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 48 points.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Parma came into the game with one win and four defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding 11. On 24 October, Parma recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Lazio.
24 October: Parma lost 1-2 against Lazio away from home in Serie A, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Torino in Serie A, Parma scored zero and conceded three on 19 October; the at home result was 0-3. Parma's away from home game on 10 October (Serie A) ended 0-3 against Inter, with zero goals for and three against. On 20 September, Genoa faced Parma in Serie A: Parma won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Serie A, 14 September brought an away meeting with Como 1907; Parma lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Parma: 19th, four points, eight matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Udinese: five defeats over five games; four goals scored, 13 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Latest: a 2-0 defeat at home to Milan on 25 October.
On 25 October, Milan faced Udinese in Serie A: Udinese lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Serie A, 18 October brought a home meeting with Lecce; Udinese lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Udinese visited Torino on 12 October (Serie A) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Cagliari travelled to face Udinese (Serie A) on 19 September. For Udinese, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 3-5 was Udinese's result against Inter on 14 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Udinese lost, with three scored to five conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Udinese 17th after eight matches and four points.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 away win for Parma on 18 April and a 2-0 away win for Udinese on 29 November 2025.
After the match
Parma and Udinese could not be separated in a goalless draw on 28 October 2026. Jesper Karlström (45'), Nicolò Zaniolo (81') and Simone Lontani (81') were booked. The card tally for Parma was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Parma. Simone Lontani entered for Parma at 74 minutes and later was booked. The card tally for Udinese was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Udinese. Parma finished with a clean sheet. Udinese finished with a clean sheet.