Prior record: 4-6-22 across 32 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1477 and 1568, giving 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2%.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 13.3%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -23 and +68. A 91-point difference on the rating scale. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Juventus leads the distribution by 7.5 points over Genoa. Raw profiles are 0.84 and 0.88 against 1.03 and 0.80. The distribution runs from 40.2% down to 27.1%. Most likely single result is Juventus on 40.2%. The forecast we stored before the match was 22.0% / 24.0% / 54.1%. The result went the other way. Expected shares 46.3% against 53.7% on Elo. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. Final score: 2-0. Both figures rest on decent samples, 49 and 57 matches. Both components point the same way, toward Juventus: 1.03 to 0.84 going forward, 0.80 to 0.88 going back. Goal expectation splits 1.00 to 1.23. Someone wins 72.9% of the time by this model.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Genoa's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 5 conceded. Venezia FC were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 1-0 win.
On 25 October, Venezia FC faced Genoa in Serie A: Genoa won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Serie A, 17 October brought an away meeting with Roma; Genoa lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Genoa hosted Fiorentina on 10 October (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Parma hosted Genoa (Serie A) on 20 September. For Genoa, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Genoa's result against Sudtirol on 15 September (Coppa Italia), playing at home; Genoa won, with one scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Genoa 16th after eight matches and seven points.
Juventus: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-0 win away to Lecce on 25 October.
On 25 October, Lecce faced Juventus in Serie A: Juventus won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Serie A, 18 October brought a home meeting with Lazio; Juventus lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Juventus visited Cagliari on 11 October (Serie A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Atalanta travelled to face Juventus (Serie A) on 20 September. For Juventus, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 2-3 was Juventus's result against Sassuolo on 13 September (Serie A), playing away from home; Juventus lost, with two scored to three conceded.
14 points in eight matches put Juventus 7th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 home win for Juventus on 6 April and a 1-0 away win for Juventus on 31 August 2025.
After the match
Genoa beat Juventus 2-0 on 28 October 2026. Kingsley Ehizibue opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Genoa, set up by Tommaso Baldanzi, to make it 1-0. Tommaso Baldanzi added to the tally in the 28th minute for Genoa to make it 2-0. Edon Zhegrova (70') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Juventus slightly the stronger side, by 91 rating points over Genoa, even though it was Genoa who won this one. five changes were recorded for Genoa. Juventus: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Juventus. Edon Zhegrova entered for Juventus at 46 minutes and later was booked. A clean sheet for Genoa.