The head-to-head counts 39 recorded meetings since 2011: 11 to Milan, 18 to Inter, 10 drawn, 42-54 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in Serie A. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1614 and 1702 — 88 points — for a 33.1% / 27.2% / 39.7% split.
Inter holds a 6.6-point edge on the next outcome. Its point estimate is 1-2. Ratings sit 88 apart. By expected share of the points: 46.7% and 53.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +114 and +202. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 30.4% / 26.5% / 43.1%. The result went the other way. Expected goals come out at 1.76 to 2.01. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 48 and 61 rated matches respectively. A decisive result carries 72.8% against 27.2% for the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.2%. Higher rating: the away side. A 12.5-point range top to bottom. The tie closed out 3-1. Attack/defence pairs: 1.23/0.89 and 1.68/0.96. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The split is one apiece: Inter leads the attacking rate on 1.68, Milan the defensive on 0.89.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Milan: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 11 goals scored, seven conceded. Bologna were their latest opponents, at home on 28 October: a 4-2 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lecce on 20 September.
Against Bologna in Serie A, Milan scored two and conceded four on 28 October; the at home result was 2-4. Milan's away from home game on 25 October (Serie A) ended 2-0 against Udinese, with two goals for and zero against. On 18 October, Atalanta faced Milan in Serie A: Milan won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. Serie A, 11 October brought an away meeting with Sassuolo; Milan drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Milan hosted Lecce on 20 September (Serie A) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Milan 5th after nine matches and 18 points.
Inter's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 6 conceded. Venezia FC were their latest opponents, away on 28 October: a 2-0 win.
2-0 was Inter's result against Venezia FC on 28 October (Serie A), playing away from home; Inter won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 25 October fixture (Serie A) paired Inter with Fiorentina. Inter won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Shaktar (Champions League), Inter finished 1-0 on 21 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 17 October: Inter won 3-1 against Bologna away from home in Serie A, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Club Brugge in Champions League, Inter scored three and conceded four on 13 October; the at home result was 3-4.
25 points in nine matches put Inter 1st in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 home win for Milan on 8 March and a 1-0 away win for Milan on 23 November 2025.
After the match
Milan beat Inter 3-1 on 31 October 2026. Christian Pulisic opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Milan, set up by Diego Moreira, to make it 1-0. Adrien Rabiot added to the tally inside the first 10 minutes for Milan, set up by Diego Moreira, to make it 2-0. Alessandro Bastoni pulled one back in the 22nd minute for Inter, set up by Manuel Akanji, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Milan extended the lead through Diego Moreira in the 43rd minute to make it 3-1. Koni De Winter (49'), Diego Moreira (52') and Carlos Augusto Lobaton (90') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. The card tally for Milan was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Milan. Inter picked up one yellow card. Inter: five substitutions.