Across 28 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 22-4-2 in Lazio's favour on wins, 55-19 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-0 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1632 and 1419, giving 74.1% / 18.3% / 7.7%.
Top of the distribution: Lazio, 74.1%. Neither figure is thin: 49 and 50 matches respectively sit behind them. Lazio holds both halves of the profile — 1.28 against 0.74 for scoring, 0.81 against 1.12 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The xG line reads 2.14 to 0.81. A 55.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +132 and -81. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Between best and worst outcome there is 66.4 points of daylight. Expected shares 83.2% against 16.8% on Elo. The forecast we stored before the match was 65.7% / 20.9% / 13.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Result on the day: 2-1. The model gives 81.8% to someone winning. The four component numbers read 1.28, 0.81, 0.74, 1.12. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Its point estimate is 2-0. Ratings sit 213 apart.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Lazio were unbeaten in their last five games, with five wins, scoring 16 goals and conceding four. On 27 October, Lazio recorded a 6-2 win visiting Sassuolo.
The 27 October fixture (Serie A) paired Lazio with Sassuolo. Lazio won 6-2 away from home, netting six goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Parma (Serie A), Lazio finished 2-1 on 24 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 18 October: Lazio won 3-0 against Juventus away from home in Serie A, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Monza in Serie A, Lazio scored three and conceded one on 11 October; the at home result was 3-1. Lazio's away from home game on 19 September (Serie A) ended 2-0 against Venezia FC, with two goals for and zero against.
Lazio: 1st, 25 points, nine matches in the calculated Serie A standings at kickoff.
Cagliari: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, 11 conceded. Latest: a 4-2 defeat away to Roma on 27 October.
Against Roma in Serie A, Cagliari scored two and conceded four on 27 October; the away from home result was 2-4. Cagliari's at home game on 24 October (Serie A) ended 0-2 against Bologna, with zero goals for and two against. On 19 October, Monza faced Cagliari in Serie A: Cagliari lost 0-4 away from home, having scored zero and conceded four. Serie A, 11 October brought a home meeting with Juventus; Cagliari drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Cagliari visited Udinese on 19 September (Serie A) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Serie A's results-based standings placed Cagliari 11th after nine matches and 13 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Cagliari on 21 February and a 2-0 home win for Lazio on 3 November 2025.
After the match
Lazio edged past Cagliari 2-1 on 1 November 2026. M'Bala Nzola opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Cagliari, set up by Alieu Fadera, to make it 1-0. Gustav Isaksen levelled it in the 36th minute for Lazio, set up by Tijjani Noslin, to make it 1-1. Andrea Pinamonti put Lazio in front late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Alfonso Pedraza, to make it 2-1. Jacopo Fazzini (59'), Juan Martín Rodriguez (66'), Adam Obert (76') and Andrea Pinamonti (84') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lazio 213 points stronger than Cagliari. Lazio won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 74.1%. Lazio's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Serie A. Cagliari's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Serie A and the 2026/27 Coppa Italia. The card tally for Lazio was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Lazio. Andrea Pinamonti entered for Lazio at 55 minutes and later scored in minute 83 and was booked. After coming on for Lazio in minute 55, Alfonso Pedraza provided an assist. Cagliari picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Cagliari was four. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. The winners, Lazio, had been behind.