The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.5% against 42.7% and 30.8%.
A decisive result carries 73.5% against 26.5% for the draw. Clube do Remo carries the largest share, 42.7%. A 11.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected shares 56.0% against 44.0% on Elo. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.39 and 1.21. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 23 points. Raw profiles are 0.78 and 1.07 against 0.83 and 1.20. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-1 in Brasileirão Série A; not enough to lean on. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.5%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The two halves pull apart — Botafogo better going forward at 0.83, Clube do Remo tighter at the back on 1.07. It ended 2-1. Spread across the three results is 16.2 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -88 and -65. Behind them are 33 and 35 rated matches. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
three goals for and five against accompanied Clube do Remo's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 23 October, Clube do Remo recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro hosted Clube do Remo (Brasileirão Série A) on 23 October. For Clube do Remo, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Clube do Remo's result against Bragantino on 18 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Clube do Remo drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 10 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Clube do Remo with Vasco da Gama. Clube do Remo drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Grêmio (Brasileirão Série A), Clube do Remo finished 1-1 on 7 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 19 September: Clube do Remo lost 1-2 against Santos at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing two.
Clube do Remo: 19th, 26 points, 32 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
three goals for and eight against accompanied Botafogo's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 24 October, Botafogo recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting Internacional.
The 24 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Botafogo with Internacional. Botafogo lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Chapecoense (Brasileirão Série A), Botafogo finished 1-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 12 October: Botafogo drew 1-1 against Coritiba away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Vasco da Gama in Brasileirão Série A, Botafogo scored one and conceded two on 7 October; the at home result was 1-2. Botafogo's away from home game on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 0-2 against Mirassol, with zero goals for and two against.
Botafogo: 11th, 39 points, 32 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Clube do Remo on 2 May.
After the match
Clube do Remo edged past Botafogo 2-1 on 29 October 2026. Jája Silva opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Clube do Remo to make it 1-0. Leonel Picco added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Clube do Remo to make it 2-0. Edenilson pulled one back late on, in the 83rd minute for Botafogo, set up by Marçal, to make it 1-2. Domingos Andrade (56') was booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Botafogo just 23 rating points ahead of Clube do Remo, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. The substitution total for Clube do Remo was five. Botafogo picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Botafogo was five. Edenilson, on in the 59th minute, scored in minute 83.