On record: 9 meetings from 2013, 8-13 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-4 in Brasileirão Série A. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1450 and 1434 — 16 points — for a 48.8% / 25.2% / 26.0% split.
Played and finished 2-0. Expected goals 1.30-1.27. Neither side holds both halves — Coritiba scores at 0.87, Vitória concedes at 1.01. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.6%. Rounded, that is 1-1. Raw profiles are 0.87 and 1.21 against 0.78 and 1.01. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Between best and worst outcome there is 23.6 points of daylight. 16 points of rating separation. Versus the 1500 seed: -50 and -66. Win-or-lose totals 74.8%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Coritiba's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.5%. Behind them are 33 and 33 rated matches. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.7%. That call matched the result. Coritiba carries the largest share, 48.8%. A 22.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Coritiba: one draw and four defeats over five games; one goal scored, 12 conceded, failing to score in four of those games, without a win. Grêmio were their latest opponents, at home on 26 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Coritiba hosted Grêmio on 26 October (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Mineiro hosted Coritiba (Brasileirão Série A) on 17 October. For Coritiba, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Coritiba's result against Botafogo on 12 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Coritiba drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 9 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Coritiba with Fluminense. Coritiba lost 0-4 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Vasco da Gama (Brasileirão Série A), Coritiba finished 0-5 on 19 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against five from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Coritiba 12th after 32 matches and 39 points.
eight goals for and seven against accompanied Vitória's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. On 24 October, Vitória recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Paranaense; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Chapecoense on 7 October.
Brasileirão Série A, 24 October brought a home meeting with Paranaense; Vitória drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Vitória visited Corinthians on 19 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. São Paulo hosted Vitória (Brasileirão Série A) on 11 October. For Vitória, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 4-0 was Vitória's result against Chapecoense on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Vitória won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Vitória with Cruzeiro. Vitória lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three.
Vitória stood 14th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 38 points from 32 matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 4-1 home win for Vitória on 2 May and a 1-0 away win for Vitória on 28 August 2017.
After the match
Coritiba beat Vitória 2-0 on 31 October 2026. Pedro Rocha opened the scoring 58 minutes into the game for Coritiba to make it 1-0. Tinga added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for Coritiba, set up by Tiago, to make it 2-0. Emanuel Brítez (62') and Vitor Gonçalves (90') were booked. The card tally for Coritiba was one yellow card. Coritiba made five changes. Vitor Gonçalves entered for Coritiba at 85 minutes and later was booked. one yellow card went to Vitória. The substitution total for Vitória was five. A clean sheet for Coritiba.